Monitoring heat waves this summer

About heat waves

Heatwaves are calculated using the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures over the next three days, comparing this to actual temperatures over the previous thirty days, and then comparing these same three days to the 'normal' temperatures expected for that particular location. Using this calculation takes into account people's ability to adapt to the heat. For example, the same high temperature will be felt differently by residents in Moree compared to those in Orange, who are not used to the higher range of temperatures experienced in Moree. The full forecast can be accessed here: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/

In the coming week, mild heat wave conditions are predicted to occur in the Gulf region, the eastern half of Queensland and Big Rivers area (NT).

Heat wave forecast starting Sunday 15 November through to Tuesday 17 November 2020

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/

9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook 13 - 22 November

Fresh this morning, this 9-day ECMWF accumulated rainfall model shows rainfall for the next 9 days centred around the Katherine/Big Rivers (NT), patchy storms in the Gulf and some handy totals on the NSW ranges / coastal strip.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

Climate in-brief

• Very little going on in the Australian tropics with the MJO currently on the other side of the world. The latest NCEP reports states “The MJO is slow moving and weak, which the opposite of that expected during a La Niña”

• A continued positive surge by the Southern Annular Mode has kept some colours in the rain forecast, albeit not big totals anticipated for the month of November

• Multi-week models not showing consensus on rainfall today and not showing any real enthusiasm for decent totals through November, with rain-bearing systems mainly centred around the Fitzroy Valley, and the NSW Great Dividing Range as a consequence of moisture in-feed from a positive SAM

• Temperatures to remain around normal for the remainder of November, and

• Meet Dr Ali Theobald - what are the climatic influences on Australia’s biggest irrigation network? We investigate factors impacting inflow into the headwaters of the Snowy Mountains Scheme, supporting $5 billion in irrigation infrastructure.

The chart above shows humidity below normal across much of north and eastern Australia over the last 7-days, helping grain harvest but not summer crop establishment.

Australian weekly rainfall and relative landscape water balance

A spike in the SAM has helped activate moisture into SE NSW over the last week with little else to report for the remainder of Australia. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/

Water balance anomaly shows a dry area in SW Qld, which will hopefully get under a drop in the system coming off the coral sea this coming week

Australian relative landscape water balance ‘upper soil’ courtesy BOM

Climate drivers

The story of this fortnight is the SAM actually going to script and staying in positive mode, in-line with the La Niña signal. The air pressure in the tropics is only normal (1013 hPa), which has also dipped the SOI back into neutral territory. Hence very little tropical activity showing up for November at this stage. The MJO will be the one to watch. Global MJO model outputs are all over the place, trying to predict its next move. Remembering of course, we can experience heat through Phases 3-4 as it approaches Australia prior to increased moisture in phases 5-6, when the MJO passes the Maritime Continent (Indonesia).

What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here

Multi-week model survey (8-28 days)

A fair scatter on model outputs for the rest of November. With very little activity in the tropics predicted, its difficult to see any big totals changing management decisions in the near future. Some smaller rain events showing for the Fitzroy Valley and NSW Great Dividing Ranges thanks to a positive SAM. The climatic situation is still building favourably, with the Coral Sea warming up and the La Niña strengthening, but we may have to wait for an active MJO for a decent rain event.

Model commentary: the rather cautious IRI model is not keen on November rain at all. In contrast, the ACCESS-S model suggests we should load Noah’s ark, but those in the summer cropping zone have seen this hype all before. NCEP has a bit of double-digit rain activity in places, but low totals are unlikely to change much this time of year even if they do eventuate. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL as predicted events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au

9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

Fresh this morning, this European model shows rainfall for the next week throughout SW Qld and the Fitzroy Valley and the NSW ranges at the end of the forecast loop.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

Monitoring the SAM

The SAM has continued its burst of exuberance into the positive phase this month. Not much is going on in the tropics, so whenever the SAM is positive there is a chance that a rain-bearing system will “pop-up” unannounced through the mid-latitudes. Climatologists expect the SAM to become entrenched in this phase through summer, in line with the La Nina signal.

Antarctic Oscillation or SAM values and 7-day forecast (6 Nov)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Recent research by Hendon et al, (2014) at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research found the Southern Annular Mode to be the leading mode of circulation variability through parts of inland eastern Australia where cotton is grown; particularly in the spring planting period.
 
A positive SAM has been proven to increase moisture supply into fronts and troughs forming in eastern Australia. The chart provided by Climate Prediction Center (US) shows the most recent observations of the SAM or (AAO). 

A negative SAM traditionally leads to a dry westerly circulation pattern through eastern Australian cropping areas.
 
BOM researchers Lim and Hendon (2013) found the SAM has the strongest connection with El-Niño Southern Oscillation in October and November – whereby the SAM is influenced most by El Niño or La Niña conditions.

Growers and advisors are encouraged to monitor the phases of the SAM together with seasonal forecasting, multi-week and short term weather models during planting. A short cartoon explaining the SAM can be found HERE. 

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

The wet season traditionally starts in November, but little activity in terms of tropical cyclones or rain depressions, mainly due to the MJO being in Phase 8 (western Indian Ocean). Click on the image to go through to the CPC website.

Meet the researcher - Dr Ali Theobald

Dr Ali Theobald

Climate researcher

What inspired you to become a climate researcher and at what age was this?

I’ve always been fascinated by the weather and the natural environment. I like to know why things are the way they are. Growing up in Northern England you get used to very changeable weather! I remember as a young child, maybe from age 8 or so, watching the weather presenters at the end of the evening news with my Dad and thinking “I want to do that’! When eventually I got to University and shared this ambition with my lecturer, he said to me ‘you don’t want to present the forecasts, you want to do the science behind the forecasts’ and he was right. I love finding out how things work and I think there’s still so much to discover about weather patterns, climatology and how it all comes together to affect what we experience on the ground.

Ali’s trend analysis found rainfall distribution is changing, which has implications for water markets, crop choice and adaptation.

 Do you have any extended family or other connections with farming or agriculture?

No I don’t have a farming or agricultural background at all, and I’ve never studied agricultural science. I did spend a lot of time on my grandad’s allotment during school holidays though! Agriculture first came to mind when I was in the literature review phase of my PhD and I was reading several papers that were discussing weather types and the autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia. Although my focus was elsewhere, I saw how the results of my research could be directly applicable to agriculture, initially with regards to the trends we were finding that pointed to a decline in autumn rainfall in the Snowy Mountains region.

What made you curious to take on the teleconnections research on rainfall in the Snowy Mountains region?

I had had some experience of this type of research from my Honours project while at university in the UK, where I looked at how the North Atlantic Oscillation, and to a lesser extent ENSO, influenced the climate of western Europe. I found it fascinating to investigate how ocean and atmospheric processes happening thousands of kilometres away could affect weather elsewhere. So when I saw this PhD advertised I knew it was something that I was very keen to get into. Luckily I got the job!

Rainfall is becoming more intense in the summer months in the Snowy Mountains catchment

A PhD research project is regarded as a long, tedious and sometimes tortuous process. How difficult was it to address the novel attributes of the study, rather than simply duplicating another method of a similar study done elsewhere?

It certainly is a marathon undertaking and can be a real rollercoaster. But, it’s a real privilege being able to spend your time dedicated to a research question. And addressing the novel attributes of the study was the exciting bit – getting to do something that hasn’t been done before! Previous studies had combined surface and mid-level atmospheric data into typing schemes, but in this study we classified weather types from the surface right up to the jet stream. And that allowed the discovery of sometimes very subtle, but important differences in synoptic types. I was able to use existing techniques but adapt them for multi-level analyses. Discovering boosted regression trees was a bit of a revelation to me, and allowed us to actually quantify the relative influence of each teleconnection. As far as I know, we were the first to apply this technique to climate research.

The Snowy Mountains area is the catchment for some of the largest irrigation investment in Australia, with the temporary water markets being driven by runoff in higher catchments. What are the key cycles that you would keep an eye on if you were an irrigator?

At shorter timescales, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) stand out as quite influential, particularly for synoptic types originating from the NE and NW – these are also directions that can bring greater rainfall totals (because you have a more tropical influence and generally more moisture) and warm rain on snow events, so may drive larger run-off. Positive SOI and negative IOD events are associated with greater moisture transport to the Snowy Mountains. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is very influential for synoptic types originating in the Southern Ocean, so, in particular, the cold fronts and cut off lows during winter. In addition, a positive SAM allows for the influx of tropical moisture. I would definitely keep track of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) too because that will give you an idea of whether we’re in a longer period of wetter or drier conditions, but also whether the shorter ENSO cycle is likely to be modulated or not (by that I mean enhanced or suppressed depending on whether the two cycles are in sync or not).

Irrigation in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (image courtesy Colly irrigation)

The PDO analysis from this analysis is intriguing. Can you explain the results in the wavelet analysis (in the journal article) of your various climate drivers?

The wavelet analyses were chosen as a way to look at how the influence of each teleconnection on synoptic type frequency varies through time. The results show that the PDO exerts an influence on synoptic types, particularly those originating from the NE and Southern Ocean at inter-decadal timescales, so between 16-32 years. This is an anti-phase influence (the arrows point to the left), which means that the frequency of those weather types increases when the PDO is in its negative phase and vice versa. This in turn means that more rainfall would be expected from those weather types when the PDO is negative. And we know from the literature that, in much the same way that La Nina generally brings wetter conditions, so too does a negative PDO. Interestingly, the PDO plots in Figure 6 in the paper also show some coherence at shorter timescales (4-8 years), in particular with the NE synoptic types, and this is interpreted as demonstrating the modulating effect of the PDO on the ENSO cycle at those shorter timescales. For instance, when there is a La Nina and a negative PDO, rainfall tends to be enhanced even more. Whereas, if those two teleconnections were out of phase (one in its wet phase, one in its dry phase), the result can be suppression of rainfall.

The trend analysis on synoptic type shows rain events becoming heavier and distribution changing from winter to summer dominant patterns. This has implications for water inflows, water markets and cropping. Is it fair to say that theoretical responses to a changing climate seem to be already at work in this particular location? (I.e. tropics moving further south)

Yes, I think that would be a fair conclusion to draw. Our work showed an increase in tropical moisture, particularly along the north-west pathway, over the past few decades, which fits with rain events becoming heavier (due to more moisture-laden tropical air). In addition, the trend towards a more positive SAM means that winter rainfall derived from the passage of cold fronts over the region has declined and is likely to continue to do so in future.

With a La Niña event now strengthening in 2020-21, based on historical analysis undertaken, the run-off and dam inflow in the Snowy catchments are likely to be further enhanced – even with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole currently decaying?

Yes, that is likely. Climatology shows that atmospheric moisture content generally increases during a La Niña event, especially in tropical latitudes which are the source of moisture of most rainfall events that generate run-off and inflows in the Snowy catchments. The warmer, tropical air also generates warm rain-on-snow events, which can lead to increased melting of the snowpack. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, if warmer sea surface temperatures occur off the coast of northwest Western Australia in conjunction with a La Niña event, this may also result in increased summer rainfall across southeast Australia due to advection of tropical moisture along trough lines.

Any questions, feedback or want to read a copy of Ali’s paper?

Email us at: farmerforecast@agecon.com.au

Iconic location of Craig’s Hut in the Snowy mountains (image courtesy Ken Duncan).

Farmer Forecast is going weekly on Fridays!

Dealing with boom-bust cycles and farming the moisture while its on: the next edition of Farmer Focus we meet Emerald (Qld) mixed-farmer, Nigel Burnett.

We have so much new content, that from today are splitting our fortnightly e-news into alternating weekly issues;

• This week (Week A); fresh analysis of climate drivers, forecast model surveys and meet the climate researcher / farmer focus; plus

• Next week (Week B); in depth current climate analysis and 9-day ECMWF rainfall forecast.

Climate in-brief

• An active MJO in phases 5-6 north of Australia has brought moisture to central and eastern parts of Australia in the past week;

• Multi-week models are favouring rain across eastern areas of NSW and Qld with another change expected through the mid-latitudes around mid-November;

• Seasonal models have wound back previously bullish probabilities for the coming three months, however, the majority of models are in agreement for wet conditions none-the-less; and

• Analysis - La Nina 2020-21: how does it compare to other events in the past?

The chart above shows humidity well above normal down the centre and eastern area of Australia at 3pm yesterday.

Australian weekly rainfall and relative landscape water balance

An active MJO has triggered some tropical moisture and rainfall to the centre and eastern parts of Australia. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/

Water balance anomaly shows a dry WA and parts of CQ and eastern tropics.

Australian relative landscape water balance ‘upper soil’ courtesy BOM

Climate drivers

With the La Niña now old news the story of the last fortnight is the cooling of the eastern Indian Ocean, bringing the IOD back more towards neutral, which is unlikely to affect the climate to years end. The SAM is a key ingredient for moisture into NSW and Qld, and this is not behaving as models predicted. Normally the SAM follows suit into wetter or positive phase, but the last few months only gets a rush and retreats back to neutral or negative phase. One to watch this harvest for sure.

What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here

Multi-week model survey (8-28 days)

A busy 2-3 weeks ahead for most areas with southern and eastern regions set to capture more of the moisture during the current MJO event, which is currently active over Australia in phase 5-6. When the MJO moves into the Western Pacific in November, gaps appear with fine weather returning for grain harvest in NSW and S Qld.

Model form: the rather cautious IRI model is more bullish for NSW and showing a dry signal for the tropics in the coming weeks. The JMA is optimistic for Qld earlier in the month and NSW later in November. The BOMs ACCESS S and ECMWF seem to have the rose coloured glasses on throughout the next three weeks and should be taken with a grain of salt. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au

Seasonal Model Survey

This is the last survey of seasonal models for the year, as accuracy is greatly reduced during the wet season. The general consensus throughout the global models is for wetter conditions although probabilities have been slightly reduced. The cooler waters north of Australia may be flowing through in the models to issue a more cautious approach to the Big Rivers and Kununurra areas. This La Niña has a few tricks left in it. One cannot assume broadscale and plentiful moisture for all.

Seasonal Model survey 23 October 2020

Analysis - 2020 La Niña: a closer look

Scientists around the world are busy reporting on the strength of the current La Niña. This is generally measured as the extent of the cooling in the Niño SST regions in the Tropical Pacific. Together with the trade winds and Walker Circulation (SOI), the stronger the La Niña, the moisture theoretically shifts towards Australia. A comparison of 2010 (a record strength event) ocean temperatures in Mid-Oct v 2020 shows a few notable differences; a cooler Coral Sea and cooler Arafura Sea (circled in red) to the north of Australia. These are important regions for convective moisture for weather systems and while cool now, will be watched with interest following basin-wide warming of the Indian Ocean at the end of November.

Other global climate researchers also point out the nuances among La Niña events and the similarities between 2020 La Niña and those of 1983-84 and 1988-89 (Nov-Jan rainfall, bottom panel). Check your farm rainfall records for these summers:

• 1983-84 La Niña: cooler waters through the Maritime Continent (Indonesia/Malaysia) saw the mid-latitudes achieve high decile rainfall through this period and less so through the northern tropics.

• 1988-89 La Niña: this La Niña arrived earlier than the current 2020 La Niña and brought fantastic rains in winter/spring. Southern areas of the continent fared much better than Qld through the analysis period.

If 2020-21 La Niña is characterised by more tropical forcing (SSTs driving the climate to change from dry to wet) over the Indian Ocean than the Maritime Continent north of Australia, then some caution for much anticipated wet season rains through Qld would be prudent. Close monitoring of the phase of the SAM (NSW and s Qld) and MJO activity will be critical in the following months.

Monitoring the SAM

Recent research by Hendon et al, (2014) at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research found the Southern Annular Mode to be the leading mode of circulation variability through parts of inland eastern Australia where cotton is grown; particularly in the spring planting period.
 
A positive SAM has been proven to increase moisture supply into fronts and troughs forming in eastern Australia. The chart provided by Climate Prediction Center (US) shows the most recent observations of the SAM or (AAO). 

A negative SAM traditionally leads to a dry westerly circulation pattern through eastern Australian cropping areas.
 
BOM researchers Lim and Hendon (2013) found the SAM has the strongest connection with El-Niño Southern Oscillation in October and November – whereby the SAM is influenced most by El Niño or La Niña conditions.

Growers and advisors are encouraged to monitor the phases of the SAM together with seasonal forecasting, multi-week and short term weather models during planting. A short cartoon explaining the SAM can be found HERE. 

The SAM has had a burst of exuberance into positive phase in early October and has not settled there as predicted, rather is tracking along in neutral. While 2010 has become a legendary benchmark La Niña year, it must be remembered that a record positive SAM has been found to be a large contributor to onshore flow and increased rainfall in that year (Lim et. al. 2016).

Antarctic Oscillation or SAM observations below (23 Oct)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Weather Live

Cost:           $6.49 AUD / week

$40.99 AUD / year

You can download this app for free, and there is a 3 day Free trial period, however it is essentially a paid app (which does mean there are no pesky ads).

Features:     Visually appealing and easy to navigate, this app has some handy features. The usual inclusions of current weather conditions (with the ability to add a list of set locations), forecasts temperatures & wind and weather alerts or warnings. The options of changing layouts etc.

My favourite feature of the app was the forecast rain maps. With location settings on, your location is marked with a dot on the map. The third image (and the blue dot) suggests our headers are not going to get back into the paddock today :-(

If you’re all about your Apple Watch®, this app has been designed for it.

Overall:        This would be my preferred weather app so far, so I will continue to pay unless I find a better one.

9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

Fresh this morning, this European model shows rainfall for the next week throughout most of NSW and SE Qld, in line with the atmospheric river of water vapour flux traversing eastern Australia.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

 A typically stable period for our northern tropics with the wet season not quite upon us. There are no cyclones or hazards forecast. Interestingly, the tropical hazards outlook has picked up high rainfall for eastern Australia 21-27 October. Click on the image to go through to the CPC website.

Chart of the Week - water vapour approaching

The water vapor content of the atmosphere is of critical importance to nearly every facet of atmospheric science. Observing the processes that determine the water vapor content of the atmosphere is, therefore, of fundamental importance. As the earth’s surface is the source of most atmospheric water vapor, observations of vertical turbulent transport of water vapor in the planetary boundary layer have been the subject of many research projects. Evapotranspiration can vary significantly across the earth’s surface due, for example, to variability in insolation, vegetation cover, soil properties, and precipitation. Area-averaged water vapor flux measurements are necessary to get a large-scale view of surface–atmosphere interactions. 

The Extreme Forecasting Index (EFI) is an integral measure of the difference between the ensemble forecast (ENS) distribution and the model climate (M-climate) distribution. This allows the abnormality of the forecast weather situation to be assessed without defining specific (space- and time-dependant) thresholds. The EFI takes values from -1 to +1. If all the ensemble members forecast values above the M-climate maximum, EFI = +1; if they all forecast values below the M-climate minimum, EFI = -1. Experience suggests that EFI magnitudes of 0.5 - 0.8 (irrespective of sign) can be generally regarded as signifying that "unusual" weather is likely whilst magnitudes above 0.8 usually signify that "very unusual" weather is likely. Although larger EFI values indicate that an extreme event is more likely, the values do not represent probabilities as such. 

What does this mean? The prediction for excess water vapour and the presence of an “atmospheric river” will grace eastern Australia this weekend, and is classified as an unusual and extreme event, in areas shaded red (image courtesy ECMWF).

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/efi2web_wvf?area=Australia&base_time=202010220000&day=2&player_dimension=base_time&quantile=1