Climate in-brief

• An active MJO in phases 5-6 north of Australia has brought moisture to central and eastern parts of Australia in the past week;

• Multi-week models are favouring rain across eastern areas of NSW and Qld with another change expected through the mid-latitudes around mid-November;

• Seasonal models have wound back previously bullish probabilities for the coming three months, however, the majority of models are in agreement for wet conditions none-the-less; and

• Analysis - La Nina 2020-21: how does it compare to other events in the past?

The chart above shows humidity well above normal down the centre and eastern area of Australia at 3pm yesterday.

Australian weekly rainfall and relative landscape water balance

An active MJO has triggered some tropical moisture and rainfall to the centre and eastern parts of Australia. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/

Water balance anomaly shows a dry WA and parts of CQ and eastern tropics.

Australian relative landscape water balance ‘upper soil’ courtesy BOM