Climate in-brief

• The latest multi-week model survey shows NSW as the main beneficiary for July rainfall, with other Qld and tropical areas likely to be average, or drier than normal.

• A review of seasonal model prediction in March for the season ahead shows temperature predictions were reasonably accurate. Rainfall forecasts were limited in their usefulness during the period.

• Stored soil moisture continues to reach capacity in many east-coast catchments after recent rainfall as any future falls increasingly likely to run water into dams and rivers.

The chart above shows a large area of high pressure circulating moisture anti-clockwise into the Australian region. A hint of the atmosphere coupling with a wet Indian Ocean Dipole in that region worth pointing out.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Some handy falls in the channel country and inland NSW. Overnight figures not updated yet. Go to the link below this afternoon for new numbers:

tp://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain saw moisture finally arrive through western Qld and continued falls in NSW MDB and ranges.

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Monitoring soil moisture this winter cropping season

A glance at the root zone moisture from the BOMs water balance model shows continued improvement through western Qld, although soil moisture in the WA region has worsened in the last fortnight. The Murray-Darling Basin looks primed for a flood, with all at capacity except the far north sitting on average.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/#/sm/Relative/day/-28.4/130.4/3/Point////2021/6/3/

Rootzone soil moisture 1 July

Monitoring the SOI and Darwin barometric pressure

The SOI has been dragging the chain from the wet signal relating to warm SSTs. The SOI has been below zero recently. The daily values show a climbing trend which will lift the 30-day average. The barometric pressure at Darwin is still only average. The take-home message is that the atmosphere is not supporting the theory from some model guidance (just yet) we should be preparing for prolonged wet conditions.

The Southern Oscillation Index or SOI is a standardised index of the barometric pressures over Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. Climate scientists use the SOI to assess the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon (or ENSO), which in Queensland and NSW accounts for nearly 25 per cent of our year-to-year rainfall variability. For example, it is often wetter during a La Niña classified year (when the sustained SOI is very positive (higher than +7)) and drier during an El Niño classified year (when the sustained SOI is very negative (lower than -7)). The index scale ranges from about +35 to -35 using the Troup method of calculation used on Long Paddock.

In a recent Farmer Forecast interview with Prof. Toshio Yamagata, he encouraged us to also consider the barometric pressure at Darwin, for above/below average as a more useful proxy for air pressure, moisture transport and rainfall potential in our region. The reason being as this value is more representative of current conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean. See news article here: https://www.graincentral.com/weather/japanese-climate-pioneer-retraces-indian-ocean-dipole-influence-on-australian-agriculture/

Prof. Yamagata and his team published a journal article on their research in this area:

Behera, Swadhin & Yamagata, Toshio. (2003). Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Journal of The Meteorological Society of Japan - J METEOROL SOC JPN. 81. 10.2151/jmsj.81.169.

Air pressure indicators 25 June 2021

Data courtesy https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Climate in-brief

• The latest seasonal model survey for Jul-Aug-Sep shows consensus for a wetter than normal period ahead. The outlook also indicates normal temperatures, with the exception of warmer temps in the tropics.

• The multi-week assessment shows more rain in the forecast, however moderate totals seem more likely in NSW and eastern Qld areas.

• A crystal ball glance at spring conditions reveals the IRI North American ensemble favouring wet conditions through central and eastern Australia. Farmers and business owners are encouraged to prepare scenarios for this outcome occurring.

The chart above shows a mass of low air pressure over Australia during a wet week for SE areas of the continent.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Eastern Qld finally catching up on totals with handy falls in the last 24 hrs, along with those along the Great Dividing Range further south.

tp://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain has favoured the Murray-Darling Basin and the Eastern half of Qld.

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Monitoring soil moisture this winter cropping season

A glance at the root zone moisture from the BOMs water balance model shows an improvement through eastern Qld and parched areas of SA and Vic. Central Australia is still waiting for the miraculous wet forecasts issued by ACCESS-S to come to fruition. When considering soil moisture in the nations key farming areas and a bullish seasonal outlook, one would have to anticipate commodity purchasers salivating on prospects of a record winter crop and cheaper prices.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/#/sm/Relative/day/-28.4/130.4/3/Point////2021/6/3/

Rootzone soil moisture 18 June

The big picture - 2021 Long-range driver update

• The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows an improvement from a fortnight ago. Neutral/wet ENSO is favoured during the business end of the winter crop and spring pasture growing conditions - although it continues trending wetter as the year progresses (similar to 2020).

• The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is again erratic, but leaning towards wet phase. What the bar charts don’t show is the warm sea temps around Australia’s northwest coming through the models as increased chance of NW cloud bands for eastern Australia. (Go to our Farmer Forecast homepage to see the warm SSTs loop around Australia).

• The ENSO Modoki is trending wet (black line, below). The JAMSTEC forecast numbers sent through by the scientist there shows Modoki wet phase peaking in Nov. The BOM prediction below shows a Sep peak for this driver.

• Wet Modoki and warm ocean temps around Australia are flowing through model predictions as wetter than normal conditions, despite neutral IOD and ENSO (see bottom chart “what affects me, when?”).

The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely, but trending towards a late La Nina again

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

The BOM’s ACCESS-S model shows this indicator moving more into wet phase than a fortnight ago. A good thing for eastern Australia.

Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (8 June)

This looked settled a fortnight ago, but the passing MJO played havoc with SSTs in the Indian Ocean! All over the place again, but we have warm water outside this measuring zone - which is a good thing.

Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

What affects me, when? A rolling 3 month moving window: See here, EMI = Modoki (navy), Nino3 = ENSO (green), IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole (red) and SAM = Southern Annular Mode (yellow). White - not significant!

From Lim et al (2012): https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_051.pdf

Weather forecasting and primary producers - have your say

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The MCV team are inviting primary producers to participate in a survey to help them understand how weather and climate forecasting (weeks to months ahead) can best meet your needs and to ensure you have a voice at the table where other agriculture sectors are having their say.

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Climate in-brief

• Models divided on the June outlook following handy falls through NSW and eastern Qld in the last few days.

• The remainder of June is shaping up as more in line with climatology (average rain/temp statistics) despite the BOMs access model showing an emphatic wet signal across large areas for the second fortnight in a row.

• A look back on the international seasonal model guidance against Autumn precip and temp observations found accuracy with a general wet theme for Australia, however none of the models surveyed captured the conditions accurately across the forecast area.

The chart above shows the intense high pressure over Australia easing in the last 7-days with more normal air pressure. Encouraging to see low air pressure in the eastern Indian Ocean as the dipole commences its life cycle for 2021.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Localised falls of ~50mm in the last 48 hrs through eastern parts. tp://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain has favoured the Murray-Darling Basin. Note the falls from the 24hrs (left) have not been included in this chart yet.

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Monitoring soil moisture this winter cropping season

A glance at the root zone moisture from the BOMs water balance model (24hr rain not updated yet) shows soil moisture improving through SE areas that were very dry. The other main feature is the dryness in central and eastern Qld that never really got a dose of La Nina. If the BOMs latest June forecast is on, then this could look completely different in a fortnight.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/#/sm/Relative/day/-28.4/130.4/3/Point////2021/6/3/

Rootzone soil moisture 3 June

2021 Long-range driver update

• The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop and spring pasture growing conditions - although it is trending wetter as the year progresses.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is again erratic, after almost settling a fortnight ago. What the bar charts don’t show is the warm sea temps around Australia’s northwest coming through the models increased chance of NW cloud bands for eastern Australia.

• The ENSO Modoki is trending wet (black line, below). The JAMSTEC forecast is down, although the scientist there emailed through the numbers and is not quite as optimistic as the BOMs outlook.

• Modoki and warm ocean temps around Australia are flowing through model predictions as wetter than normal conditions, despite neutral IOD and ENSO.

The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely, but trending towards a late La Nina again

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

The BOM’s ACCESS-S model shows this indicator moving more into wet phase than a fortnight ago. A good thing for eastern Australia.

Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (25 May)

This looked settled a fortnight ago, but the passing MJO played havoc with SSTs in the Indian Ocean! All over the place again, but we have warm water outside this measuring zone - which is a good thing.

Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

What affects me, when? A rolling 3 month moving window: See here, EMI = Modoki (navy), Nino3 = ENSO (green), IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole (red) and SAM = Southern Annular Mode (yellow). White - not significant!

From Lim et al (2012): https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_051.pdf

Climate in-brief

• The MJO is set to have little influence over Australia, as it is predicted to weaken as it enters the Maritime continent region to the north of Australia.

• The remainder of May looks dry for much of the northern tropics, Qld and NSW. A weak rain-bearing system is more likely in weeks 1-2 of June, although the strength of the system is unconvincing at this stage.

• A check on international seasonal model guidance for the winter season favours mid-tercile (average) precipitation and temperatures. Some encouragement for the spring season as a wet phase Modoki and Indian Ocean develop.

The chart above shows very little change from last fortnight. The low off NSW has since moved away and the high pressure ridge has intensified.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Very little rain in the 24hrs to 9am.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain symptomatic of the intense high-pressure system over Australia (above).

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Monitoring soil moisture this winter cropping season

A glance at the root zone moisture from the Federal Governments drought map shows most cropping areas pretty well off, with the exception of Vic and SA areas. Much of Australias central-northern pastoral zone is still dry. The big mover in the last month has been SE Qld and the Darling Downs region, now with above-average soil moisture.

Source: https://map.drought.gov.au/

Rootzone soil moisture 21 May

2021 Long-range driver update

• The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop and spring pasture growing conditions. The trend seems to favour the La Nina to continue to develop towards years end.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is a step closer to becoming more settled for 2021. The SST maps are favouring warm water in the east around Java and Indonesia, lingering from the 2020 La Nina. The last wet IOD event was 2016 and geographically, tends to impact areas from Dubbo south through Vic and SA.

• The ACCESS-S ENSO Modoki is trending wetter (black line, below). The JAMSTEC site and Modoki forecast are currently down, which is unfortunate. Impacts tend to broadly affect NSW and Qld areas. Modoki and a potential wet phase of the Indian Ocean could be the key influences of 2021. Things are looking bright for eastern Australia.

The chart above shows wet/neutral ENSO conditions likely this spring

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

The BOM’s ACCESS-S model shows this indicator nudging wet thresholds mid-winter and spring

Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (13 May)

Models are gradually becoming less scattered as the IOD begins its annual life cycle.

Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Climate in-brief

• The MJO is showing a strong pulse over the Indian Ocean in Phases 2-3, which historically sees all the moisture pulled westwards away from us. The MJO is set to lose all strength as it reaches Australia in Phases 4-5. However, cloud and moisture are predicted to arrive in Australia’s north in weeks 3-4 in May, creating some confusion in the weeks ahead.

• The next 3-4 weeks is uncertain. Models are split on rain-bearing systems in the second half of May. Weather models are favouring an easterly airflow to bring showers and rain to some parts of Qld and NSW.

• A check on international seasonal model performance shows a vast improvement in accuracy with the ACCESS-S and ECMWF coming close to predicting a wet Feb-Apr season. Other models were not too far behind.

• Very little Tropical Cyclone or activity of any consequence showing for the Australian continent for the remainder of May with Sea Surface Temps cooling in the Arafura Sea and off the NW Australian coastline.

The chart above shows very little change from last fortnight with low air pressure on the east coast and higher air pressure in the Indian Ocean.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Some heavy falls along the south coast of NSW and light falls on the eastern ranges overnight. Click thru to access the map

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain shows some handy falls across NSW and SE Qld this week, under the belt of low air pressure (above).

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Monitoring soil moisture this winter cropping season

A glance at the root zone moisture from the BOMs AWAP water balance model shows a distinct similarity with the seasonal decile chart for Feb-Apr in this e-news edition. Those areas in the south are stll parched, while eastern and western grain-growing areas are fairly well set up for winter crops.

Rootzone soil moisture 6 May

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Climate in-brief

• The MJO is showing a strong pulse over Africa in Phases 8 and 1, which historically sees all the moisture pulled westwards away from Australia.

• The next 3-4 weeks is showing a drier trend, consistent with a fortnight ago, as high air pressure over Australia continues to take up residence.

• A check on international seasonal model predictions for the May-July period shows no signal for wetter or drier conditions. However, those global models predicting a wet phase Indian Ocean are bullish for spring rainfall looking further out.

• Very little Tropical Cyclone or activity of any consequence showing for the Australian continent for the remainder of April and the first week of May

The chart above shows higher air pressure over SE Australia in the last 7-days. This anomaly has strengthened in the last week.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Some spectacular falls in CQ and the rest along the Qld coastline. Click thru to access the map

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain shows some handy falls across N Qld and N NSW.

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Monitoring soil moisture this winter copping season

A big improvement over the last fortnight in the northeastern half of Queensland and western Darling Downs regions under some rain. The salient feature is still the drying trends in SA and Vic, with more livestock coming on the market as the dry weather starts to bite. The wet phase of the IOD might still be 3 months away for those areas, if it happens.

Rootzone soil moisture 22 April

2021 Long-range driver update

• The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop and spring pasture growing conditions.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is again erratic and not settled for 2021 yet. The SST maps are favouring warm water in the east around Java and Indonesia, which may not necessarily be in the eastern IOD box. The last wet event was 2016 and geographically, tends to impact areas from Dubbo south through Vic and SA.

• The ENSO Modoki is trending neutral/wet (black line, below). The JAMSTEC site and Modoki forecast are currently down, which is unfortunate. Modoki and a potential wet phase of the Indian Ocean could be the story of 2021.

The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

The BOM’s ACCESS-S model shows this idicator nudging wet thresholds late winter and spring

Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (13 April)

This is very interesting. Along with La Nina Modoki, could well be the story of 2021. Watered down a bit from a month ago. Forecasts this far out need to be taken with a pinch of salt, however, no need for alarm bells for a repeat of 2019 when we had a strong dry phase.

Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Climate in-brief

• The MJO has basically come and gone without any real impact other than scattered areas of Qld receiving some handy falls.

• The next 3-4 weeks is showing a drier trend, consistent with a fortnight ago, while acknowledging April is one of the driest in the calendar year for most inland locations anyway.

• A check on seasonal model accuracy from December 2020 for the Jan-Mar period found all models showed a general signal for rain across eastern areas, with no clear winner capturing observations among those surveyed.

• Very little Tropical Cyclone or activity of any consequence showing for the Australian continent for the remainder of April, with the MJO set to return to Phases 8-1 in the coming weeks.

The chart above shows higher air pressure over SE Australia in the last 7-days. This anomaly has strengthened in the last week.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Small totals along the coast in the last 24 hours the only areas to trouble the scorer. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain shows some handy falls across CQ and SE Qld which is timely after these areas have been on the skinny end of totals in 2021.

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17