Multi-week model survey (8-28 days)

A fair scatter on model outputs for the rest of November. With very little activity in the tropics predicted, its difficult to see any big totals changing management decisions in the near future. Some smaller rain events showing for the Fitzroy Valley and NSW Great Dividing Ranges thanks to a positive SAM. The climatic situation is still building favourably, with the Coral Sea warming up and the La Niña strengthening, but we may have to wait for an active MJO for a decent rain event.

Model commentary: the rather cautious IRI model is not keen on November rain at all. In contrast, the ACCESS-S model suggests we should load Noah’s ark, but those in the summer cropping zone have seen this hype all before. NCEP has a bit of double-digit rain activity in places, but low totals are unlikely to change much this time of year even if they do eventuate. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL as predicted events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au