Meet the photographer - Jordan Cantelo

Jordan Cantelo

Landscape Photographer, Western Australia

Climate enthusiasts are not limited to farmers, graziers and commodity analysis. In fact, weather and landscape photography require their own unique understanding of climate science and degree of weather literacy. Planning, travelling and capturing images can be laden with risk and their own distinctive set of challenges.

Farmer Forecast caught up with West Australian photographer, artist and firefighter Jordan Cantelo about his foray into loving the landscape, climate and adventures capturing stunning images of weather in the outback. Jordan exudes enthusiasm and energy for his passion for nature and the outback, with a kind message for all of our farmers at the end of this interview.

What inspired you to become a landscape photographer and at what age was this?

My love of photography started when I was fortunate enough to travel overseas when I was 15yrs old. The opportunity to see some amazing scenery in the French Alps and then capture that with my point and shoot camera - then see it in print was awesome.

It was a few years later that I eventually purchased a DSLR. My job had me travelling right around the state and I wanted to capture the amazing landscape Western Australia had to offer, it is then that my love of photography really took off.

I would make note of the places I visited during my work trips, then head back during holidays and bring the camera with me to capture it. We are so lucky to live in such an amazing corner of the world and being able to capture moments and then print them is very rewarding.  

Do you have any extended family or other connections in the outback or with agriculture more generally?

No extended family in the outback or with agriculture, however, we have family friends who own a dairy farm in the South West near Busselton. I do regularly bump into farmers when I am photographing out in the Wheatbelt.

Wyalkatchem Wheatbelt, WA

What are your favourite activities or interests away from photography that help recharge you for work mode?  (e.g. sports, cultural, family, music etc.)

Certainly family time. I use to play in the local football team and had a few years off, then joined another team when I moved to the country, however, a quick run with injuries during the pre-season put an end to that short revival.  My normal day to day job is extremely busy during the Autumn, Summer and Spring times with extended time away from home, so my relaxing time away from photography includes spending as much time as I can with my wife and my two sons.

Dandaregan wheatbelt, WA

DALWALLINU MIDWEST, WA

ARIANO MIDWEST, WA

DOWERIN WHEATBELT, WA

Do you follow climate influences to help better understand opportunities for weather events? I.e. El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases impacting cyclone frequency or wet seasons?

I watch out for ENSO for a curiosity factor but living in Western Australia I tend to follow the Indian Ocean Dipole more so, even though there is a link the IOD has with ENSO events. I do tend to watch out for these climate factors planning my big photography trips to the Kimberley. A forecasted good wet season can sometimes mean a very active build up in the top end. If the forecasted phase is not looking so promising and a drier season is forecast, then this tends to affect when and where I travel to, or if I go at all.

Where do you go or what sites do you visit to keep up with weather and climate info?

I use a couple of websites mainly for weather information. For climate information, I tend to use the official Australian Bureau of Meteorology website (http://www.bom.gov.au) and for my day to day weather, and while photographing storms I use the BOM website, as well as Weatherzone (http://www.weatherzone.com.au).

Phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation impacts weather during the monsoon – do you track the MJO prior to going out and travelling?

I tend to track the MJO when I am around the Pilbara and Kimberley regions while on my photography trips. When the MJO is in the region, the chance of cyclones, and heavy rain will determine where I can and cannot go.

When the MJO is forecast to be in the region, I will watch for enhanced rainfall especially when I am in the eastern Kimberley. It is a 10-11hr drive from Broome to Kununurra, and when it floods out that way, you can get stuck quickly.

So yes, I do watch the MJO prior to travelling into the Kimberley.

Wyalkatchem Wheatbelt, WA

kellerberrin wheatbelt, W.a

Storm chasing and thundercloud photography is a speciality of yours. Have you had any near misses or ever been caught or bogged in a severe storm?

Storm photography is inherently dangerous. To capture the images I am looking for, I tend to set myself up in some precarious positions. It requires a bit of planning, knowing your roads, knowing the limits, and knowing when to turn around. I think this has saved me on a few occasions, especially when heavy rain affects unsealed roads and flash floods that make roads impassable.  I have had a few close calls with lightning, heavy rain and hail; however, one time stands out. Recently I was in the Pilbara with my brother near Karijini National Park. We were photographing a series of storm cells that had developed during the heat of the day. The clouds were extremely dark with big downpours of rain coming down in sheets. The lightning was not extremely active, with most lightning embedded in the rain. While we were setting up, out of what seemed to be nowhere, a lightning bolt landed not too far behind us. The crack of thunder was almost instantaneous, so the strike was extremely close. We believe it was on the hill that was directly behind where we were setting up (no more than 150-200m away). Lightning can strike up to 20km away from the centre of a thunderstorm, so if you are within that 20km, you are in the strike zone. While you must be extremely unfortunate for that to occur, it does sometimes occur, and people have been caught out on many occasions.

Where are your favourite areas for weather photography that still make you excited to visit, or you feel completely at peace when in that spot?

Anywhere in Western Australia is special. From the dramatic ancient landscapes of the Pilbara to the Tropical Savannah of the Kimberley, to the crashing big swell southwest coasts and to the flat and equally amazing farming country of the Wheatbelt, there is something to see all the time. Watching these huge thunderstorms form 20,30,40 thousand feet into the air from what was blue skies only an hour earlier is mind-blowing. While I really do love watching these cells blow up into the skies, I do prefer for them to be in area’s that are extremely remote and away from farmlands.

A message to our farmers from Jordan:

I thoroughly appreciate and hugely admire the work that every farmer does in getting a crop ready for harvest, and that I understand that my photography sometimes will capture severe storm activity that may affect the livelihood of others who have put blood, sweat, tears and many thousands of hours of work in to get a crop ready to harvest.  

The unfortunate side story to being out and photographing these storms is that sometimes these severe storms bring heavy rain, severe winds, and large hail to the area’s that they form. These storms can have a devastating effect on farms in the line of fire and on occasions. I have seen hail and lightning cause a terrible amount of damage to crops that are ready for harvest.  The work that the farmers do to get the harvest off in a timely manner is extraordinary. It’s not uncommon for me to be out at all hours of the night during harvest time watching the weather and on the horizon, there are the high beam lights of farming equipment going back and forth getting the crop off.

I can only appreciate from the outside looking in, that the stresses that these storms can bring during these periods.

Gibb river rd, Kimberleys WA

Want to see more of Jordan’s sensational photography? You can find his work at www.jordancantelo.com

Any questions, feedback for Jordan or Farmer Forecast?

Email us at: farmerforecast@agecon.com.au

Meet the researcher - Dr Lisa Goddard

Dr Lisa Goddard

Climate researcher

Farmer Forecast relies heavily on multi-week, ENSO and seasonal forecasts from the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University in the United States. This week, we chat with Dr. Lisa Goddard, the Director and Senior Research Scientist of the IRI. Lisa oversees research and product development aimed at providing climate information at the 10-20 year horizon and how that low-frequency variability and change interacts with the probabilistic risks and benefits of seasonal-to-interannual variability. Most of Lisa’s research focuses on diagnosing and extracting meaningful information from climate models and available observations. Lisa holds a Ph.D. in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University and a B.A. in physics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Farmer Forecast caught up with Lisa to hear how a career in climate science evolved, along with seeking insights into seasonal forecasting more generally and which ENSO phase might be on the horizon in 2021.

What inspired you to become a climate researcher and at what age was this?
I decided to go into climate research when I was considering graduate school after getting my BA degree in physics. I loved physics, but did not really want to pursue the theoretical path. At that time, in the late 1980s, there was just starting to be stories in the news about the ozone hole and global warming. I thought, “This is an exciting way to apply my physics knowledge. This is something I want to learn more about, and maybe help people.”

Do you have any extended family or other connections with farming or agriculture, as much of your work involves helping farmers adapt to climate extremes?
No. My mother was a special education teacher, and my father worked for the State of California.

What are your favourite activities or interests away from research that helps recharge you for work mode?
My family and my dog, Chewy, are the most important source of joy in my life outside of work. I also enjoy hiking, reading, and gardening. I guess I do have a little connection to agriculture, but that’s fairly new.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is also a keen area of your research interests. This is also something that can offer farm managers some guidance for big-picture decision making. The rainfall charts produced by the longpaddock.com.au are fascinating, with clearly defined wet and dry phases that seem broadly aligned with the PDO. It seems more obvious in hindsight, but what are the issues with predicting the next move of decadal oscillation?
The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is a climate pattern in the Pacific that varies from decade to decade and affects global and regional climate on 10–40 year timescales. It is like El Niño and La Niña’s older, slower-moving, uncle or auntie, I suppose. We have lots of clues as to what drives these slow changes, and how they link to other ocean basins and the El Niño system, as well as how this pattern has behaved in the past, including the impacts on Australia. But our understanding of the underlying physics and potential avenues for predictability of these decade to decade changes remains a matter for ongoing research.

Columbia University is a diverse, academic community of more than 40,000 students, faculty, and staff from across the nation and the world, living and learning on dynamic campuses.

Lisa with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Australian Farmers follow IRI ENSO predictions, seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting regularly, as chart presentation in terciles is easy to understand. In your experience, what is one of the biggest challenges for users interpreting forecasts to translate into risk management and action?

I have seen that most decision-makers have a tough time using terciles. Part of the difficulty is that they may not know what constitutes above-normal or below-normal. Farmers are usually much more attuned to these things than the rest of the public. In addition to this categorical representation of the upcoming climate, terciles may not be the right decision point for all sectors. For example, in Southern Africa, the malaria community is interested in the wettest/driest 25% of the historical distribution. Disaster risk reduction efforts in the humanitarian sector are often more concerned with extremes. For this reason, the IRI started issuing what we call Flexible Format Forecasts about 10 years ago. In this way, someone coming into the forecast map rooms can ask to see the probability of being in say the driest 20% of the historical record or the probability of exceeding 10 cm in the coming season. This takes the decision away from the producer of the forecast and gives it back to those actually using the information.

In the most recent year with the late arrival of La Niña, GCMs tended to be over bullish on precipitation forecasts. Those predictions have certainly created scepticism about GCM outputs when rain hasn’t eventuated. How important is it to sense-check GCM outputs with climate fundamentals, such as SSTs distribution, statistics and other known research outputs for users to better manage risk?
This is the chronic frustration inherent in probabilistic information. The GCMs and the range of possibilities they produce are based on the response to current ocean, land, and atmosphere conditions. Models are not perfect, but they can be calibrated – both in strength and range of responses. It is important that this is considered and folded back into the forecasts. This is how IRI approach its seasonal forecasts. Even with all the care possible, though, nature may still deal the unexpected, low-probability outcome. If we had perfect models, Nature would be only one of many, many ensemble members, after all. One cannot easily get over feeling ‘burned’ by a forecast that seems wrong, but I would encourage users of forecasts to take a look at the longer-term performance of those forecast systems – like 10-20 years or more, before condemning them to the waste heap.

What do you see are the biggest challenges for climate scientists in the coming decade in terms of boosting seasonal model accuracy in a changing climate?
I think the challenge for seasonal forecasts will be to better capture the extremes, and extreme seasonal behaviour, of the climate system. Due to the changing climate and increased public awareness, there is a tendency to attribute all extreme events to climate change. Seasonal forecasts must include the drivers of climate change as well (most of them do), not because the greenhouse gasses change enough to make a difference from one season to the next, but their evolution will affect the trends in the model history, which is important for context. So, more accurate forecasts of extreme weather characteristics and seasonal means/totals a season or two ahead should provide considerable value for communication as well as for considerations of adaptive management.

The current ENSO forecasts are showing neutral-ish conditions for the second half of the year, although we are in the known predictability ‘gap’ at the moment. What do you think the chances of a La Niña forming are, as history shows quite of often one La Niña event will follow another?
According to some analysis done by one of my colleagues, about half of the La Niñas (not preceded by a La Niña) are followed by a second La Niña. We would typically look to the ocean for information on that possibility. The most robust condition for that is if the upper ocean heat content does not recover to normal or greater in the demise of the event. Currently, that is not the case; the heat content is almost back to normal. Other recent research has pointed to signals from the decaying La Niña reflecting off the coast of South America and influencing the air-sea coupling in the second half of the year. There are no obvious signals in the tropical Pacific right now. There are a few models that keep re-developing La Niña later this year, but the most bullish of those has been pathologically extreme throughout this event, another couple is related in their genealogy and also use the same analysis for their initial conditions. The spread of the models is just really all over the place. I think we need to wait a couple of months for more clarity.

A shot of Lisa as a calendar ‘çlimate model’ in standing at the edge of the Pulcaro Reservoir in Chile.

This is the April run of the IRI’s seasonal outlook (fresh off the press this morning) for the business end of the winter crop 2021.

Any questions, feedback for Lisa or Farmer Forecast?

Email us at: farmerforecast@agecon.com.au

Meet the researcher - Dr Ben Henley

Long-term wet-dry phases are largely driven by the distribution of warm water across certain regions of the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is referred to as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A broad understanding of these multi-year cycles can help create context and reflect on the timeliness of farm investment, leasing, irrigation water availability, machinery purchases or hiring of personnel. One of Australia’s leading climate researchers in this complex area is Dr Ben Henley of Monash University, Melbourne. His research focuses on climate variability, drought risk, and hydrological impacts using multi-proxy palaeoclimate records observed data and climate model simulations.

Dr Ben Henley

Climate researcher

What inspired you to become a climate researcher and at what age was this?

As a small boy, I was fascinated by the natural world. I grew up at the top of a hill in Charlestown, near Newcastle in NSW, surrounded by plants, animals, bush, lake, coast and big skies. From a young age, I watched the weather, the changing seasons and the coal ships from that hill. I came to harbour a sense that we humans can find better ways to live – in support of both human and natural systems – and that this could be achieved through engineering and science. So, I studied Civil and Environmental Engineering. I later combined my mutual love of music and science by studying Acoustics, in Sweden actually. I gathered skills in physics and maths which would end up having some surprising uses in areas of climate and hydrology. I came to understand the scale of the climate change problem after returning from overseas in my early 20s. I read widely on the topic and decided that I simply had to do something to contribute to solving the problem. From then I have been trying to better understand climate change and variability, water resources and how we can best prepare for an uncertain and challenging future. 

 Do you have any extended family or other connections with farming or agriculture?

I have extended family out near Coonabarabran in NSW, and have great memories visiting their farms as a kid, playing with emu chicks, calves and finding yabbies. My family has always grown our own fruit and vegetables, and my Dad is a passionate gardener of native plants. I hope one day to have a small hobby farm of my own. With a good scientific sense of the variability of the Australian climate, and having such a strong personal connection to the land, I have a deep respect for farming, and the challenges farmers face. I think that is what led me to study drought.

Ben as a youngster, was always fascinated by nature and the environment (Above) and in an interview with ABC newsreader, Ros childs, live on midday tv (RHS).

What are your favourite activities or interests away from research that helps recharge you for work mode?

Music, the outdoors, family and community have always been a huge part of my life. I started playing the piano when I was about 5. I was incredibly lucky that a world-class piano teacher, Ms Rosemary Witcomb, happened to live at the end of my street at the time, and my parents supported my music so deeply. Studying eighth grade classical piano at the same time as year twelve was not easy, but I’ve found that what you put into music, it gives back ten-fold, and at times it is what keeps me going and makes me who I am. I later picked up a couple of other instruments and regularly accompany and harmonise with my wife, who is a professional singer-songwriter, in her choirs and in the general fabric of our day. I loved soccer and cricket as a kid but tend to stick to more individual sports these days. Staying the course through the stresses of academia, like many other professions, demands regular physical and mental escapes including running, bushwalks, yoga, meditation, family, and music.   

The “tripole” index, developed by ben is now an internationally recognised method of measuring and assessing long-term cycles of wet and dry in the pacific basin, which has effects across the globe.

What is the simplest, no-nonsense way you can explain the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (PDO)?

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is a climate pattern in the Pacific which varies from decade to decade and affects global and regional climate on 10–40 year timescales. It is like El Niño and La Niña’s older, slower moving, uncle or auntie, I suppose. We have lots of clues as to what drives these slow changes, and how they link to other ocean basins and the El Niño system, as well as how this pattern has behaved in the past, including the impacts on Australia. But our understanding of the underlying physics and potential avenues for predictability of these decade to decade changes remains a matter for ongoing research.

Your 2015 paper with co-author Prof. David Karoly and others has been cited almost 300 times. The tripole index is now published on the NOAA (US) website. What made you curious to take on the task of developing this index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation?

The paper arose from a simple recognition, by David and me I recall, that at that point there was no simple and widely-used index to track the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (the IPO). Because the IPO has a signature that extends well beyond the tropics, using an index of El Niño that focusses only on the tropical Pacific would not tell the full story. So, we set about developing our own index. There are of course other ways to track the IPO, which are certainly valid. I am stoked that the index has been useful to many people and that NOAA maintains and updates the index we developed. I learnt through that process, that the most widely used scientific findings are often those which build tools or datasets for others to use.   

Groups of years put together by the longpaddock show the recent 8-year dry spell, together with the wet-dry phase of the IPO. Click on the image to explore these maps.

The rainfall charts produced by the longpaddock.com.au (see image to the right) are fascinating, with clearly defined wet and dry phases that seem broadly aligned with the PDO. It seems more obvious in hindsight, but what are the issues with predicting the next move of this phenomenon? 

Reliable predictions of any climate phenomenon rely on a few key things, namely i) a strong understanding of the physical climate mechanisms and the precursors to any shifts; ii) accurate climate model representations, and iii) success in the evaluation of predictions using what is called model hindcast verification. In the case of decade-to-decade changes in the climate, these are very big hurdles! The scientific community has not settled on any one single mechanism for the IPO. We have identified numerous potential drivers and past precursors to the shifts, and there are some excellent theories that need developing and testing. In short: it’s a chaotic system and we need to better observe it, understand it, and model it. I would like to see a concerted global research effort on this topic. I previously proposed a small version of such a project, but alas, my idea narrowly missed out on funding. That’s ok, I’m sure there were other great projects! I think the 10 to 20-year future timeframe is a big challenge, both scientifically, and to those on the land. What happens in the next 10–20 years is critically important for people managing water resources and agricultural systems and it would help a lot to have a clearer insight into that near-term future.

Reconstructing ENSO and other climate drivers using coral cores, tree rings and other measurements over longer-term timescales is also another keen interest area of your research. What are the standout take-home messages you can share that can help us contextualise the horrific 2019 drought and better plan for an extreme period of wet or dry?

Horrific it was. As if the drought was not enough, the intensity and scale of the fires that followed shocked us all. I worked on a paper recently with a large group of scientists led by Nerilie Abram, to put those drought and fire conditions into a longer-term context. The brief message is that we have a highly variable climate and we should expect extremes from year to year, but climate change contributed, and it will continue to throw some massive challenges at us in the coming decades. I’ve used records from corals, tree rings and ice cores to build up multi-century reconstructions of the past, which show that variability is a fundamental feature of our climate but that the rate of global temperature increase is staggering compared to past centuries. Climate change is accelerating, and we must all do all we can to mitigate it and adapt to it, implementing actions locally and adding our voices to the long-term solutions at the global scale. My advice is simple: plan for extremes and take action now. Use the best available evidence to adapt our systems to a variable and changing climate and make rapid structural changes which will contribute to global solutions. Easier said than done, but we must do it.

Click on the short YouTube Below for an explanation of what the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is, how its measured and some impacts.

Click on the image to access this 3-minute YouTube on the PDO courtesy UK Met Office.

Any questions, feedback for Ben or Farmer Forecast?

Email us at: farmerforecast@agecon.com.au

Holeman Aspect Wi-Fi weather station review

Tried & tested

By Richard Beattie, Moree

A quick trip into Bunnings and XX purchase uncovered a very useful product

xx

Pro’s & Cons

• xx

In his Parramatta shorts, Matt feeding hay out on his familys beef cattle farm as a 10-year-old during the 1982-83 El Nino.

The RMM index or “spider diagram” is used by climate scientists around the globe to track the location and strength of the MJO (image courtesy BOM).

XXX

HoLman

Had experience, with good, bad or ugly weather stations???

Email us at: farmerforecast@agecon.com.au

Meet the researcher - Dr Ali Theobald

Dr Ali Theobald

Climate researcher

What inspired you to become a climate researcher and at what age was this?

I’ve always been fascinated by the weather and the natural environment. I like to know why things are the way they are. Growing up in Northern England you get used to very changeable weather! I remember as a young child, maybe from age 8 or so, watching the weather presenters at the end of the evening news with my Dad and thinking “I want to do that’! When eventually I got to University and shared this ambition with my lecturer, he said to me ‘you don’t want to present the forecasts, you want to do the science behind the forecasts’ and he was right. I love finding out how things work and I think there’s still so much to discover about weather patterns, climatology and how it all comes together to affect what we experience on the ground.

Ali’s trend analysis found rainfall distribution is changing, which has implications for water markets, crop choice and adaptation.

 Do you have any extended family or other connections with farming or agriculture?

No I don’t have a farming or agricultural background at all, and I’ve never studied agricultural science. I did spend a lot of time on my grandad’s allotment during school holidays though! Agriculture first came to mind when I was in the literature review phase of my PhD and I was reading several papers that were discussing weather types and the autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia. Although my focus was elsewhere, I saw how the results of my research could be directly applicable to agriculture, initially with regards to the trends we were finding that pointed to a decline in autumn rainfall in the Snowy Mountains region.

What made you curious to take on the teleconnections research on rainfall in the Snowy Mountains region?

I had had some experience of this type of research from my Honours project while at university in the UK, where I looked at how the North Atlantic Oscillation, and to a lesser extent ENSO, influenced the climate of western Europe. I found it fascinating to investigate how ocean and atmospheric processes happening thousands of kilometres away could affect weather elsewhere. So when I saw this PhD advertised I knew it was something that I was very keen to get into. Luckily I got the job!

Rainfall is becoming more intense in the summer months in the Snowy Mountains catchment

A PhD research project is regarded as a long, tedious and sometimes tortuous process. How difficult was it to address the novel attributes of the study, rather than simply duplicating another method of a similar study done elsewhere?

It certainly is a marathon undertaking and can be a real rollercoaster. But, it’s a real privilege being able to spend your time dedicated to a research question. And addressing the novel attributes of the study was the exciting bit – getting to do something that hasn’t been done before! Previous studies had combined surface and mid-level atmospheric data into typing schemes, but in this study we classified weather types from the surface right up to the jet stream. And that allowed the discovery of sometimes very subtle, but important differences in synoptic types. I was able to use existing techniques but adapt them for multi-level analyses. Discovering boosted regression trees was a bit of a revelation to me, and allowed us to actually quantify the relative influence of each teleconnection. As far as I know, we were the first to apply this technique to climate research.

The Snowy Mountains area is the catchment for some of the largest irrigation investment in Australia, with the temporary water markets being driven by runoff in higher catchments. What are the key cycles that you would keep an eye on if you were an irrigator?

At shorter timescales, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) stand out as quite influential, particularly for synoptic types originating from the NE and NW – these are also directions that can bring greater rainfall totals (because you have a more tropical influence and generally more moisture) and warm rain on snow events, so may drive larger run-off. Positive SOI and negative IOD events are associated with greater moisture transport to the Snowy Mountains. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is very influential for synoptic types originating in the Southern Ocean, so, in particular, the cold fronts and cut off lows during winter. In addition, a positive SAM allows for the influx of tropical moisture. I would definitely keep track of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) too because that will give you an idea of whether we’re in a longer period of wetter or drier conditions, but also whether the shorter ENSO cycle is likely to be modulated or not (by that I mean enhanced or suppressed depending on whether the two cycles are in sync or not).

Irrigation in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (image courtesy Colly irrigation)

The PDO analysis from this analysis is intriguing. Can you explain the results in the wavelet analysis (in the journal article) of your various climate drivers?

The wavelet analyses were chosen as a way to look at how the influence of each teleconnection on synoptic type frequency varies through time. The results show that the PDO exerts an influence on synoptic types, particularly those originating from the NE and Southern Ocean at inter-decadal timescales, so between 16-32 years. This is an anti-phase influence (the arrows point to the left), which means that the frequency of those weather types increases when the PDO is in its negative phase and vice versa. This in turn means that more rainfall would be expected from those weather types when the PDO is negative. And we know from the literature that, in much the same way that La Nina generally brings wetter conditions, so too does a negative PDO. Interestingly, the PDO plots in Figure 6 in the paper also show some coherence at shorter timescales (4-8 years), in particular with the NE synoptic types, and this is interpreted as demonstrating the modulating effect of the PDO on the ENSO cycle at those shorter timescales. For instance, when there is a La Nina and a negative PDO, rainfall tends to be enhanced even more. Whereas, if those two teleconnections were out of phase (one in its wet phase, one in its dry phase), the result can be suppression of rainfall.

The trend analysis on synoptic type shows rain events becoming heavier and distribution changing from winter to summer dominant patterns. This has implications for water inflows, water markets and cropping. Is it fair to say that theoretical responses to a changing climate seem to be already at work in this particular location? (I.e. tropics moving further south)

Yes, I think that would be a fair conclusion to draw. Our work showed an increase in tropical moisture, particularly along the north-west pathway, over the past few decades, which fits with rain events becoming heavier (due to more moisture-laden tropical air). In addition, the trend towards a more positive SAM means that winter rainfall derived from the passage of cold fronts over the region has declined and is likely to continue to do so in future.

With a La Niña event now strengthening in 2020-21, based on historical analysis undertaken, the run-off and dam inflow in the Snowy catchments are likely to be further enhanced – even with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole currently decaying?

Yes, that is likely. Climatology shows that atmospheric moisture content generally increases during a La Niña event, especially in tropical latitudes which are the source of moisture of most rainfall events that generate run-off and inflows in the Snowy catchments. The warmer, tropical air also generates warm rain-on-snow events, which can lead to increased melting of the snowpack. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, if warmer sea surface temperatures occur off the coast of northwest Western Australia in conjunction with a La Niña event, this may also result in increased summer rainfall across southeast Australia due to advection of tropical moisture along trough lines.

Any questions, feedback or want to read a copy of Ali’s paper?

Email us at: farmerforecast@agecon.com.au

Iconic location of Craig’s Hut in the Snowy mountains (image courtesy Ken Duncan).

Meet the researcher

Jon Welsh

Farmer Forecast lead climate analyst

When and why did you become interested in climate?

I came home to a mixed farming business at Walcha in the mid-1990s which ended up adding a block at Coolah in the central west five years later. 1994 was my first year on the farm, which was coined a ‘once in a generation’ drought - technically every 25 years. When you own livestock, protracted droughts can be gruelling, physically and emotionally. More so with cattle that eat the drought feed as quick as a bank can print the money. My father would not sell into a depressed drought affected cattle markets, so we fed, fed, fed, and lopped kurrajong scrub. Dry times in 1994, 2002, and the first half of 2005 then another drought of 2006 and a near record breaker of 2009 seemed more than bad luck. During the contrasting 2005 dry first half and wet second half of the year I started to wonder if science could help anticipate these emphatic shifts and that our farm’s fortunes were driven by the climate. Waiting for natural springs to break out and truck drivers giving advice on Bogong moth sightings was not working on a farm management level.

So, was it simply the toll of feeding cattle that motivated you?

“our cattle in One of the many drought years, which, in hindsight, had strong correlations with both the Modoki index and IOD. If only I knew then what I know now”

Yes and no. Yes, because when you started feeding it was nearly impossible to know when to stop. We fed all our cows through a dry time for 10 months, sold them - then it rained cats and dogs 8 weeks later. Feeding over long periods costed a fortune and we almost gave back all the profits we made the year before when the dollar sunk to 45c (and stock prices were at record high levels). No, because the ‘once in a generation’ droughts that were meant to be 25 years were happening every 5 years or less. Old timers in the district used to shake their heads and say, ‘things were never like this’. The annual rainfall at Coolah could vary from 350mm to 1200mm in any given year. We used to budget for 28” but I don’t think we ever hit near that number in 13 years we were at Coolah. We bought a black soil grain farm and sold the grain crop on it for $130/t when grain was everywhere in a great season. No rain for 6 months followed, and we bought grain back to feed stock for $300/t. If science could help, then decisions to buy and sell stock and grain would be more informed – rather than simply a game of Russian Roulette.

What was your first step in understanding climate science?

There was 35 years of historical on-property rainfall records at Coolah and I started to compare them with climate cycles. I started to search online and find out about El Niño and La Niña which I thought was complete hocus pocus and witchcraft at the time. That preconception was mainly from 1997 touted as the El Niño ‘event of the century’ which was a good year with a wet spring. I cold-called CSIRO oceanography research in Hobart. I was dusty and stressed one lunch time with no end to the drought in sight. I was transferred by the receptionist to Dr Mike Pook who was very helpful, and we had a cordial chat. I was encouraged he gave airtime to a complete stranger. He then suggested I investigate the research done by ‘a bunch of scientists in Japan’ who had done some neat analysis on the Indian Ocean and the effects on the Australian climate. So, I scribbled down a Japanese surname and a research agency in Tokyo. With that encouragement I looked up the telephone country code of Japan and made an international call. To my surprise the receiver (Prof Toshio Yamagata) spoke broken English and was happy to discuss his findings. Our conversation centred around the Australian drought and farmer suicide here that must have made international news at that time. I was heartened once again and continued my climate investigations. After thinking excel was a brand of planter, I put the 35 years’ worth of monthly data into a spreadsheet as requested and sent it via email to the Japanese Agency for Marine Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). The climatic analysis that eventuated from the Japanese researchers aroused my interest in climate science and Australian rainfall.

In 2009, Japanese national broadcaster NHK, flew out to Australia to report on a farmer using Japanese research to manage droughts. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology first referred to the Indian Ocean Dipole in climate analysis in 2013

Speaking at an APEC international climate symposium in Japan – how did that happen?

In 2008 I was in routine communications with Dr Behera Swadhin, a colleague of Prof. Toshio at JAMSTEC, Japan. Halfway through the year they asked me to talk at the upcoming climate symposium at Tokyo University on “Impacts of the Indian Ocean on SE Australian Agriculture”. I did not know what it all meant but it was an expense paid trip and I figured nobody in Japan would understand me anyway, so nothing to lose. For the presentation, I managed to convince the local Graincorp contact to release some site-specific receival data from various silo locations in NSW and did some basic regression analysis on annual grain intake and Indian Ocean Indices, with the help of my Japanese mentors. I then muddled my way nervously through the 40 minutes on stage at Tokyo University. It was a relief when the presentation was over. The hospitality shown, the tours of JAMSTEC and seeing the huge climate supercomputer in Yokohama was quite an experience.

Tell us about your move into cotton research and climate extension?

The move into climate research and extension is a complete accident. Family farming businesses are complex and transitioning between generations, while accounting for siblings rarely goes in a straight line. I ended up in Narrabri in 2013 without a job and met with Cotton Research & Development Corporation for a position that included a climate extension component. With that, came a well-resourced project and very supportive cotton R&D Managers: Dr Ian Taylor and Allan Williams who instilled free-thinking and a no-limits approach to finding out whatever I needed to wherever I needed to look. I was informed the only other personnel on the project register was NSW DPI research economist from out west of Wee Waa somewhere, Janine Powell. The 4-year CRDC project gave access to CSIRO researchers, universities, international research contacts, extension specialists nationwide, conferences, as well as exposure to climate R&D among a host of other things. A new business eventuated with Janine as founding partners from the previous project, to what is Ag Econ and Farmer Forecast currently. Climate ‘researcher’ tag given in this interview is probably not as apt as climate ‘survivor’.

“A late La Niña condition finally arrived after another dry winter. A bin-busting pioneer G33 sorghum crop, pictured with agronomist, James Miller”

What areas of climate extension and research are you involved in now?

As part of the ongoing CRDC role, distilling relevant information sources for decision making for cotton growers and advisors currently covers traditional NSW and Queensland areas, but is now shifting into the tropics, which is exciting. Post-graduate lecturing at UNE and course content on agricultural climate risk management is currently in its 7th consecutive year as well as routine workshops with agronomists at decision times, also communications to Local Lands Services. In terms of climate research, the bulk of time commitment is spent on reviewing existing journals and planning new research projects for cotton and other RDCs via the Managing Climate Variability program including MLA, GRDC, SRA and AgriFutures – mainly for relevance and application to farming. However, there is some applied research coming through the pipeline I am involved in with UNSW and CSIRO, which we hope to publish in scientific journals this year.

After increasing your climate literacy over the years how has it affected your attitude to risk and farm decision making?

Partners can live in a marriage their whole life and never understand the opposite sex. In the same vein, farmers can live with the climate their whole life and not understand it, simply accept it. From my experience there have been wins and losses on the farm over the years trying to anticipate broad scale shifts in the climate, particularly when the lure of super profits beckons from a good trade. I bought a sizeable cotton seed contract once that increased 400% in six months on a dry forecast, purchased cattle for $1/kg at the end of a drought which made super profits before it rained. But there have been losses as well. Forward selling a portion of Faba Beans during a wet harvest ended in disaster after 300mm - which isn’t easily forgotten. The commodities market is clearly better educated on climate than it was 10-15 years ago, without as many short-term wild swings in prices. Climate knowledge has without doubt, helped manage our livestock numbers and manage risk over the last 3 years. With a decent standard of climate literacy, I am probably more cautious now on decisions than ten years ago - relying on black cockatoo sightings and new growth appearing on river red gums was a fools paradise. I’m not sure there’s ever a pot of gold awaiting seasonal forecast info, but it can certainly can help stop bad decisions when the evidence is there.

Meet the researcher

Prof. Toshio Yamagata

Principal Research Scientist, Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology JAMSTEC

Professor Toshio Yamagata is one of the worlds leading climate scientists, his research findings include the discovery of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We had the pleasure of talking to Toshio last week. Here is his fascinating story.

Toshio, how did you end up becoming interested in climate science?

My hometown is about 100 kilometers north of Tokyo, and in the winter strong monsoon blows down from the mountainous areas. When I was a child, the dust from the fields was amazing. Thunderclouds come down with lightning from the mountainous areas every summer in the afternoons every day. In the spring, flowers bloomed in the gardens of each family, and in autumn, the foliage of deciduous trees was beautiful. My parents liked gardening, and I naturally became interested in the changing seasons.
At the University of Tokyo, I majored geophysics as a field where research can be done while enjoying nature. My supervisor was Professor Kozo Yoshida, who is famous for his research on coastal upwelling in the field of physical oceanography. I was interested in mathematical physics, so I chose the field of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD), which treats fluid phenomena that occur on a rotating, stratified planet.

My younger work at that time includes the weak non-linear theory that explains why anticyclonic vortices keep longevity in the ocean and Jupiter, and the mechanism by which planetary waves become unstable to form vortices. In 1976, the GFD program of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution approved me to stay there for three months as a GFD fellow. This was an amazing opportunity to meet many giants in the field, such as Drs. Joe Pedlosky, Peter Rhines, Melvin Stern, Jack Whitehead, Geroge Veronis, Andrew Ingersoll, Willem Malkus, Louis Howard etc. They opened my young eyes to the world. In particular, main lecturer was Dr. Dick Lindzen; I was impressed by his simple Albedo-feedback model for climate. I didn't understand it well at the time, but I think it may have shaped the deep psychology of becoming a climate researcher.

After turning the age 30, I gradually wanted to deal with real phenomena that occur in the atmosphere and the ocean to understand the meaning of seasons, I daringly sent a letter with my articles to Dr. Kirk Bryan of GFDL at Princeton University in the United States, asking possibility of staying a couple of years as a visiting researcher.  He immediately accepted me.  There I met Dr. George Philander, and decided to go deeper into the study of tropical climate. This set the course of my life in science; it was in my early 30s. I moved to the US with my wife and my three-year-old son. At that time, I thought that the United States might become a place for my research. In retrospect, I think there are decisive moments in life that determine what follows.

When did you become suspicious that the Indian Ocean had a see-saw condition similar to the El Niño - La Niña phases in the Pacific Oceans?

The summer of 1994 was extremely hot in Japan, and a research team investigating the cause was formed by meteorologists. I had been studying El Niño model since I was in Princeton, so I joined the group. A little later, the AGU Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting was held in Brisbane, and I had the opportunity to exchange ideas with Dr. Gary Meyers of CSIRO. He informed me that there were abnormally dry conditions in Australia, and, according to his XBT section data, the eastern Indian Ocean was also colder than normal. We checked the oceanic semiannual Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet (which is trapped along the equator and flows eastward only during the monsoon break season: spring and fall) using the satellite data (SST and altimetry data) and found there was almost no eastward Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet in fall of 1994. It was amazing!  This is the beginning of the story. It turned out that the unusual westward winds along the equator from early summer to late fall hindered the evolution of the fall Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet. By the way, the Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet (equatorial long Kelvin wave) was predicted theoretically by my supervisor Prof. Kozo Yoshida in the late 1950s and reported by Prof. Klaus Wyrtki in 1973 using the ship drift data. I was excited at finding this unusual event similar to El Nino in the Pacific and started checking all available atmospheric and oceanic data with my young postdocs from India. Those are Saji, Vinay and Behera. I named this Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and introduced the IOD index. There is another interesting story behind the scene just prior to publishing our paper in NATURE, but this will enter the realm of science historians.

Positive IOD - weaker westerly winds, cooler ocean temperatures and less convection reducing the moisture in the atmosphere over nort west australia

So a casual conversation led you to look at linkages with Australian rainfall?

Yes, the role of my old friend Gary’s suggestion at an early stage was very important.

How important was computing power in data analysis when these discoveries were made?

Negative IOD - Intensified westerly winds, warmer waters around australia, increased convection and increased chance of rain

At that time of the discovery, we started the big supercomputer project called the <Earth Simulator> with the Science and Technology Agency and NEC. However, it was not completed. We just adopted a very simple analysis using an ordinary computer.  What is most important is the curiosity to notice strange things based on solid knowledge of GFD.  Dr. David Anderson described our work in Nature in such the way that it was amazing we still can discover things with a simple method.

Farmers are curious as to how the size of the IOD regions and locations are chosen – can you explain in broad terms how this was done?

The IOD is an Indian version of El Nino/La Nina. Since I developed a simple theory of El Nino in the early 1980s in Princeton, I immediately recognized that the IOD is a “basin-wide” “equatorial” phenomenon. One problem which annoyed me was the existence of the monsoonal Somali Jet as the western boundary current. The mechanism of this oceanic current is totally different.  So, we deliberately excluded the region off Somalia.

Do you think an air pressure measurement, like the SOI would help communicate the Indian Ocean?

We prepared the atmospheric component of IOD, but we could not include that part in our Nature paper. We tried to publish it in the journal of Royal Meteorological Society but it was declined because the editor thought that the IOD was a dubious concept. So, I published it with Dr. Behera in Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan with a slightly shocking title to show how the pressure at Darwin is disturbed by the IOD. Some skeptics still thought IOD in the Indian Ocean was just a response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. Later on, we, and many others, published so many papers on how IOD influences the climate in many places on the globe.

Saji, N.H, Goswami, B.N, Vinayachandran, P.N & Yamagata, T. (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical indian ocean

The first IOD scientific paper, published in 1999 of which you co-authored has been cited an incredible 4,400 times, yet this climate driver was not acknowledged by the Australian Bureau of Met in communications until around 2012. Can you remember some of the debate in the scientific community about the reality of IOD?

There was a tough time.  But almost all my highly cited papers in my career were originally rejected.  I know the originality denies common sense (Please see my address from Dean’s office in 2011 (right after the Tohoku disaster) ). I forgot the exact date. Perhaps, it was the early 2000s when BMRC (at that time) organized a special session and invite me, perhaps to ask me to retreat from the IOD concept. However, I was prepared well with carrying more than 200 OHP sheets (so heavy!) to respond to all questions expected. Almost every week, I had a strategic meeting at FRSGC with my young postdocs and they helped me a lot.  I remember I said at the opening of my talk at the BMRC conference that “this is a boxing game and I am afraid of the home town decision. However, I find one lucky aspect; the judge is my friend Gary Meyers who understands my work.” One of the skeptics Dr. Neville Nicholls was there.  He was very close to the concept of IOD but, unfortunately, he mixed up several phenomena and retreated his idea on the Nichols’ dipole. After the conference, he, with his wife, invited me to a nice restaurant and I remember we had a wonderful evening.  He said, “Toshi, as you know, I cannot support your IOD explicitly but I never criticize it anymore.” I admired his attitude and said,” You have a real knight spirit.  He replied, “ You have a real Samurai spirit.” I was really happy to be a scientist.

How do you think technology can help better predict the IOD, as it’s a fairly tricky driver to nail down from an Australian climate point of view – would more comprehensive ocean monitoring help?

IOD is more difficult to predict than El Nino/Southern Oscillation because of many players of different time and space scales at one stage.  However, our predicting skill is improving day by day thanks to efforts of climate research agencies and institutions. We have just published a paper which discussed why we were successful in predicting the 2019 super IOD; we have realized the El Nino Modoki (another important climate mode in the Pacific) played an important role in triggering as well as strengthening the IOD. Efforts to develop the Ind-Pacific Ocean observing system are very important and we need to support the international partnership fostered by IO GOOS and WCRP.