Coming up next week....
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Farmer Forecast meets Dr Lisa Goddard, the Director of Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, New York, to talk about seasonal forecasting, evaluating models, managing risk in agriculture and much more!
Climate drivers - update
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The story of this fortnight is the SAM and MJO finally going to script in-line with the La Niña signal. The air pressure at Darwin is below normal (1007 hPa) and the SOI has returned to above +8 a threshold for La Niña conditions. With a week-moderate MJO pulse approaching to the north of Australia, drivers look as primed as they have been for months to introduce the 2020 La Niña to many areas of eastern Australia in December, so far untouched.
What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here
Climate drivers
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The story of this fortnight is the SAM actually going to script and staying in positive mode, in-line with the La Niña signal. The air pressure in the tropics is only normal (1013 hPa), which has also dipped the SOI back into neutral territory. Hence very little tropical activity showing up for November at this stage. The MJO will be the one to watch. Global MJO model outputs are all over the place, trying to predict its next move. Remembering of course, we can experience heat through Phases 3-4 as it approaches Australia prior to increased moisture in phases 5-6, when the MJO passes the Maritime Continent (Indonesia).
What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here
Climate drivers
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With the La Niña now old news the story of the last fortnight is the cooling of the eastern Indian Ocean, bringing the IOD back more towards neutral, which is unlikely to affect the climate to years end. The SAM is a key ingredient for moisture into NSW and Qld, and this is not behaving as models predicted. Normally the SAM follows suit into wetter or positive phase, but the last few months only gets a rush and retreats back to neutral or negative phase. One to watch this harvest for sure.
What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here
Climate drivers
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Not too much change from last fortnight. The SAM is finally back in positive territory after a month below zero. Research would suggest our climate drivers are in a good state for rainfall across eastern Australia in the coming weeks and months. The 90-day SOI is now in La Nina territory at +8. For those in central-eastern cotton areas looking for rain, a more emphatic positive shift in the SAM and SOI would help prospects.
What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here
Climate drivers
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Not too much change from last fortnight. The SAM is finally back in positive territory after a month below zero. Research would suggest our climate drivers are in a good state for rainfall across eastern Australia in the coming weeks and months. For those in central eastern areas looking for rain, a positive shift in the SAM and SOI would help prospects.
What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here
Climate driver update
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All the key indicators are currently in the right spot for rain, with the exception of the SAM. Central eastern NSW and Downs regions will be held hostage to the south-westerly airflow resulting from the negative SAM. It would be unusual to see an East Coast Low develop off the Tasman or Coral Sea with the SAM in a negative phase.
What to know about climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here