Climate in-brief

• The MJO has basically come and gone without any real impact other than scattered areas of Qld receiving some handy falls.

• The next 3-4 weeks is showing a drier trend, consistent with a fortnight ago, while acknowledging April is one of the driest in the calendar year for most inland locations anyway.

• A check on seasonal model accuracy from December 2020 for the Jan-Mar period found all models showed a general signal for rain across eastern areas, with no clear winner capturing observations among those surveyed.

• Very little Tropical Cyclone or activity of any consequence showing for the Australian continent for the remainder of April, with the MJO set to return to Phases 8-1 in the coming weeks.

The chart above shows higher air pressure over SE Australia in the last 7-days. This anomaly has strengthened in the last week.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Small totals along the coast in the last 24 hours the only areas to trouble the scorer. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain shows some handy falls across CQ and SE Qld which is timely after these areas have been on the skinny end of totals in 2021.

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Analysis: Jan-Mar season predictions v observations

A look back to mid-December 2020 at the seasonal forecast issued for Jan-Mar showed a broad wet signal for NSW and Qld areas. The observations for that period (top chart, below) shows a contrast between NSW and inland Qld areas, not really captured too well by any of the models (bottom charts). The IRI multi-model ensemble did pick a dry tercile in NT, however, also went for a wet SE Qld which never eventuated. The ECWF was close, but no wet signal predicted for central Australia. The degree of difficulty through the summer monsoon is quite high when one or two intense events can shape the outlook one way or the other. Hence no prizes for 1st place this week, with all models about on par with each other.

Multi-week planner (8-28 days)

The outlook for much of Queensland and NSW looks drier than normal out to the first week in May. Knowing, of course, April (with August) is one of the driest months in the calendar across much of eastern Australia. A sneak peek at the ACCESS-S model shows a dry signal for winter, somewhat of a u-turn on previous forecasts. We will investigate this, and other international model guidance in more detail on our long-range outlook when seasonal models and ocean forecasts refresh shortly.

Model commentary: IRI model is staying firm on a dry 3 weeks now out to 7 May. In hindsight, this has been a form horse through 2021. The JMA is showing a broad change for NSW and Qld at the end of April, but it’s difficult to see which climate factors are driving that, with the MJO miles away. Nothing showing on the 16-day outlook anywhere except for Ayr in FN Qld. ACCESS-S is sitting on the fence for the next four weeks, although favouring doom and gloom for winter is worth keeping an eye on when we survey other models and climate drivers shortly.

Go to 10-day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as rain events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au

Monitoring the MJO this Autumn

The chart below shows a weak pulse of the MJO in Phase 6 out in the Western Pacific Ocean. The last event didn’t result in any tangible difference in the climate apart from the very northern tips of Australia and parts of CQ. The high-pressure system camped over Australia’s interior kept most areas fine and mild. As the MJO moves back around to phases 8 etc. more likely we are to run into fine and clear conditions.

The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions. The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases (see December MJO explainer). A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

NCEP TC watch is showing very little going on in the Australian region out to 20 April, consistent with multi-week models calling for fine weather over much of the continent this month.

Monitoring soil moisture this winter copping season

A big improvement over the last fortnight in eastern Australia and parts of Qld previously showing red. The salient feature is the drying trends in WA, SA and Vic. Farmers in those regions will be hoping for the wet phase of the Indian Ocean kicks-in sooner rather than later. Livestock from WA reportedly still being trucked east across the country to greener pastures also.

Rootzone soil moisture 9 April

Coming up next week....

Farmer Forecast meets Dr Lisa Goddard, the Director of Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, New York, to talk about seasonal forecasting, evaluating models, managing risk in agriculture and much more!

9-day rainfall outlook

This morning’s 9-day ECMWF model loop shows a scud over the Snowy Mountains area and not much else. All the rainfall activity is west over the Ningaloo Reef and in the Western Pacific with the passing MJO.

Keep an eye on https://meteologix.com/au for more site-specific analysis.

Image loop courtesy Meteologix

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Agronomist Greg Rummery

Greg Rummery

Farmer & Agronomist

Walgett farmer and Agronomist with Outlook Ag (an agronomic consultancy covering NW NSW), Greg Rummery recently shared with Ag Econ’s Janine Powell, how climate is considered in his role as an agronomist.

Climate knowledge or advice hasn’t been part of the traditional role for an Agronomist - how have you seen this evolve over the years. And how might this evolve in the future?

You’re right, but the weather and in particular rainfall is always a topic of conversation and probably more so when working in lower rainfall and variable rainfall environments. So climate advice has always been an underlying theme even in the early years at Walgett and becoming more of an advice topic over the recent decade that for us at least has been played by unrelenting drought. A few agronomists have links to private forecasters and subscription type climate and rainfall advice has become more popular, some with dubious understandings of the local context. I see that becoming more common into the future. Climate forecast I see as a very different subject to that of a rainfall forecast and I generally get them from different sources.

Do you provide climate commentary, advice or point your clients to sources of climate information?

A bit of both. Relaying the message or key points from forecast like AgEcon's or the Nutrien fellow Eric Snodgrass is pretty common. Advice is generally around risk management and the interface with crop choice or in-field management strategies in a proactive context.

Walgett 2019, It was hard to believe that from this point the land could spring back to productivity

Many farmers in the Walgett region started 2020 winter with a full profile,

La nina didn’t really kick in until aFter harvest

How does they way your clients consider the climate vary?

Some try to understand the science around forecasting down to the minute detail, others simply look at climate, mother nature, rainfall etc and use the simple analogies that we often hear such as "you either get enough or not” with reference to rainfall, "mother natures been kind" and "we have seen this all before”. The latter is more observatory rather than predictive. That said, I feel most farmers and agronomists look at what seems to be a dozen or so forecast models each morning before breakfast!  

IF 2020 winter started with a full profile, 2021 is overflowing!

Did many of your clients plan for the La Nina?

We have a couple of sayings in the west that go along the lines of “work on what you have not what you think you’re going to get” with reference to soil water and, “ if you’re forced to look up then usually you’re in for a doing over”  (typically said with a bit more slang!)  

 That said we did consider the planned wetter summer with the use of residual herbicide products in fallow etc with many clients.  Given that, we were coming from drought in 2019, very little country was fallowed through winter 2020 given the timely planting opportunity that presented in April/May 2020, so our planned summer crop area was pretty small and well short of a normal season.

Looking forward, what comments would you make on the climate considerations for the end of summer and the coming winter season?

The recent rain has topped up fallow moisture well (a bit too well in places!), the forecast looks average to slightly wetter for winter rainfall from what I can see, so our plan will be to plant what we can if the timeliness of the planting windows for the different crops presents. Our biggest risk in many paddocks is continuing wet and that may result in some planting intentions being held over to a later winter crop opportunity or summer crop. If we are forced to fallow through to a summer crop then we would have a good close look at what the summer outlook for rain and temps are prior to making a decision around summer crop choice and planting time.

Like stats? Checkout www.climateapp.net.au

Any questions, feedback for Greg or Farmer Forecast?

Email us at: farmerforecast@agecon.com.au

2021 Long-range driver update

• The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is starting to show some model consensus towards wet phase this spring. The last wet event was 2016 and geographically, tends to impact areas from Dubbo south through Vic and SA.

• The ENSO Modoki is yet to be updated from early March. Modoki and this wet phase of the Indian Ocean could be the story of 2021.

The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (30 March)

This is very interesting. Along with La Nina Modoki, could well be the story of 2021. Forecasts this far out need to be taken with a pinch of salt, however, no need for alarm bells for a repeat of 2019 when we had a strong dry phase.

Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

7-day air pressure - chart of the week

(from U.S NOAA website: https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_07a.fnl.html )

The chart below shows an anomalous ridge of high pressure camped right over the centre of Australia.

The interesting feature is the vast area of low air pressure surrounding our continent.

Models are showing this pattern persisting through April at this stage.

New Release this week! - Understanding the Madden Julian Oscillation

Ever wondered what the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is? Confused by those weird spaghetti MJO spider charts?

Paul and Tonia Grundy at the CottonInfo YouTube production centre have been busy with Farmer Forecast this week, to explain why the MJO is worth the time to understand how it impacts farming operations. The MJO can be a major driver of heatwaves and rain events during the Australian monsoon.

Click on the link to play this 4-minute clip!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXab5n3HxHA&t=175s

9-day rainfall outlook

This morning’s 9-day ECMWF model loop shows a scud over Central Qld (that missed much of the March rainfall activity) so let’s hope those dry areas can catch up on their 2021 totals.

A sneak peek of the refreshed multi-week models shows more of the same - clear and mild temps for the remainder of April, with the exception of another rain event for C Qld mid-month. Full analysis next week.

Keep an eye on https://meteologix.com/au for more site-specific analysis.

Image loop courtesy Meteologix

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Climate in-brief

• The MJO has come to life in the Indian Ocean in Phase 2-3. Guidance suggests it will arrive north of Australia in the first week of April, however, rainfall impact looks to be reduced to the top-end and the Gulf region at this stage.

• The next 3 weeks looks much drier for many areas in NSW and Qld. 2 of 3 Multi-week models showing emphatic dry tercile forecasts in a month (April) that is one of the driest in the calendar year for most inland locations anyway.

• The current updated seasonal precipitation outlook is still positive from Apr-Jun. Those global models surveyed show above average probabilities of wetter and cooler-than-normal conditions in the next 3 months.

• Some tropical cyclone activity in the north-western tropics and possibly the Gulf of Carpentaria in the coming fortnight, as the MJO interacts with warm SSTs as it passes through phases 5-6.

The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much over the entire continent and similarly to australias north and west.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

only small totals in s NSW and the tropics in the last 24 hrs after a memorable week for most. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr

Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across such a broad area of the continent. Emerald seems to have been in a rain shadow as is other parts of the gulf over the past week.

Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week&region=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17

Multi-week planner (8-28 days)

The outlook for much of Queensland and NSW looks drier than normal, knowing that “normal” for April is generally one of the drier months of the year for inland areas anyway. The passing MJO looks like it may only affect the Gulf and top end, although that could change in the 2nd half of April. No high temperatures showing through April either, so mild conditions prevailing throughout.

Model commentary: IRI model is calling for a dry 3 weeks of April, except for the Gulf. This model rarely shows a signal either way and often sits on the fence, but not this time. Both the JMA and BOM are showing mainly tropical areas to benefit from the passing MJO, although the BOMs ACCESS-S model has quite an emphatic “dry” signal for NSW out to 19 April. JMA is basically sitting on the fence for NSW and S Qld rainfall. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as rain events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au

Monitoring the MJO this Autumn

The chart below shows a moderate pulse of the MJO in Phase 2/3 over the Indian Ocean (end black line). Models are anticipating the MJO to make its way east into Phases 5-6 (red and blue lines) into the region north of Australia through the first week of April. This is the one of the first few discernible MJO events we’ve seen this wet season. Nothing much in terms of rainfall showing up on the models yet, but it could develop in weeks 2-3 in April after the MJO passes.

The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions. The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases (see December MJO explainer). A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

NCEP TC watch is showing activity in the NW of Australia in week 2 with the anticipated arrival of the MJO into the region north of Australia and potential TC formation and rain in the top end.

The SST anomaly for this week (bottom) shows water warming right around Australia’s perimeter, not unlike a traditional La Nina at its peak. Looks like good potential for Autumn rain on that basis. Chart courtesy: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

2021 Apr-Jun seasonal outlook

Still a reasonably optimistic Apr-Jun period, although watered down a little from last month. Warm waters from the La Nina appear slow to decay to Australia’s north, so looks like the top end could be in for a slightly longer wet season. The US (IRI) predictions are particularly bullish for NSW, with moisture streaming down from the NW and warm waters extending up from the Ningaloo Reef. No red flags in terms of temperature at this stage.

Order of Figures clockwise from top left: ACCESS-S tercile forecast, CS3 multi-model tercile (ECMWF, UK, France, Italy, US, Japan), 5x North American models combined on the bottom showing rainfall (LHS) and temperature (RHS).

Monitoring soil moisture this winter copping season

A big improvement over the last fortnight as one would expect! Perfect timing for winter cropping and livestock producers coming into winter.

Rootzone soil moisture 25 March

Farmer Forecast Podcast - 2021 Climate Outlook!

In case you missed it, Jon and Janine talk through likely scenarios and main influences this calendar year, relevant climate research relating to grain markets and discuss implications for livestock and broadacre cropping industries.

To access the 20-minute recording, click on the image below!: 👉

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