Analysis: Jan-Mar season predictions v observations

A look back to mid-December 2020 at the seasonal forecast issued for Jan-Mar showed a broad wet signal for NSW and Qld areas. The observations for that period (top chart, below) shows a contrast between NSW and inland Qld areas, not really captured too well by any of the models (bottom charts). The IRI multi-model ensemble did pick a dry tercile in NT, however, also went for a wet SE Qld which never eventuated. The ECWF was close, but no wet signal predicted for central Australia. The degree of difficulty through the summer monsoon is quite high when one or two intense events can shape the outlook one way or the other. Hence no prizes for 1st place this week, with all models about on par with each other.