2021 Apr-Jun seasonal outlook

Still a reasonably optimistic Apr-Jun period, although watered down a little from last month. Warm waters from the La Nina appear slow to decay to Australia’s north, so looks like the top end could be in for a slightly longer wet season. The US (IRI) predictions are particularly bullish for NSW, with moisture streaming down from the NW and warm waters extending up from the Ningaloo Reef. No red flags in terms of temperature at this stage.

Order of Figures clockwise from top left: ACCESS-S tercile forecast, CS3 multi-model tercile (ECMWF, UK, France, Italy, US, Japan), 5x North American models combined on the bottom showing rainfall (LHS) and temperature (RHS).