Apple’s ‘Weather’ App

Pre-loaded on every iPhone – just how good is it?

Accuracy:     High Accuracy (according to global reviews we could find). Data is drawn from The Weather Channel (An IBM Business) which incidentally
has its own app. 

Cost:           FREE

Features:     A simple to read

                        Current weather conditions

                        Hourly forecasts for the next 24 hrs

                        10-day forecast

                        Quick swipe to view saved locations

                        Click through to The Weather Company which has further detail, but is full of ads

Pros: Hourly updates. This is a separate computer than the usual BOM and other suspects, which can offer a new perspective on a change coming.

Cons:          No ability to get further detail. No probabilities of precipitation or winds.

Overall:        A simple, yet accurate app that can give a quick overview of conditions.

Farmer climate focus - Janine & Christian Powell

Ag Econ’s Janine Powell lives with her family on a farm near Burren Junction. Her husband Christian is part of a family farming operation that is focused around dryland and irrigation farming enterprises, the climate is a huge consideration in their business.

Location snapshot

Catchment:   Namoi Valley (Murray Darling Basin)

Altitude:        163 m

Enterprise:    Broad acre dryland, irrigated farming and livestock

Soils:             Cracking grey vertosols (Plant Available Water 200mm)

Rainfall:        Wet season (Oct-Mar): 63% rainfall
Cool season (Apr-Sep): 37% rainfall

Seasonal rainfall climate drivers: Burren Junction, NSW

Janine & Christian Powell

Burren Junction, NSW

“As broadacre farmers we feel beholden to the weather. Recently it has been too dry, sometimes too wet… rarely do we get the Goldilocks experience of the weather being ‘just right’” Janine explains.

On farm the Powells take into consideration long-term forecasts for planning crop rotations and plantings. While these forecasts can give a good indication of potential climatic patterns, they are well aware that it is not a guarantee of getting (or not getting) rain.

The Powells have a winter cropping program which includes cereals and pulses. “With the wetter 2020 Winter Spring seasonal model forecast in mind, this year we capitalised on the rain that fell in Feb-April by planting all our dryland area to a mix of winter crops”. Like many other farms in the region, it is the first time in 4 years since the full area has been planted.

“Some of our country is slightly undulating with poor drainage, so we hope it’s not a wet at harvest… at this point it’s looking that way.”

“It’s important to understand which factors drive the climate in our region to better manage risk – particularly during our winter cropping growing season”.

Climate literacy allows farmers like the Powells to consider potential climate risks and how they can be mitigated. “With the wetter outlook, we did contemplate leaving out some of our lower laying paddocks fallow but decided the opportunity cost was too high. Instead we planted those areas to lower cost cereals – if they get waterlogged or even flooded prior to harvest – we won’t have lost too much money.”

The Powells utilise silo bags for temporary on farm storage. “In the past we’ve ensured they were on raised pads and in accessible positions for trucks. This year we are looking at increasing the size of the areas allocated for the bags and potentially improving the road accessibility to some of them.”

When asked which rainfall models they look to for shorter forecasts they both use Meteologix. “It’s a great overview of what many of the international models are predicting, I like to take a rough average of the models as an indication, but the high and low also give a potential range of what you might expect.”

This year to date the Powells have had 392 mm of rain. May and June turned out dryer than expected with a total of just 25 mm. Rainfall for July and August totalled 74 mm and they have their hopes on high September rainfall to finish the winter crop.

“During rainfall events we are glued to the BOM radar and then afterwards we are on OzForecast seeing where the rain fell locally.” Janine likes looking at the broader BOM image of the state or Australia image to see the overall movement of the system, whereas Christian likes to be zoomed in to see where (and on who’s farm) the rain is falling. The Powells recently installed a Davis weather station that is linked to the OzForecast network to see real and accurate on farm weather data. “The purchase may have also been prompted by one too many disappointing instances of the gauge over reading due to an ill placed sprinkler!”

“Certainly, for the bigger picture it’s important to have an understanding of the cyclical nature of Indian ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Access to good quality climate information can help our farming business make better decisions, more often”.

Across Australia the 2020 Winter crop is forecast at 47.9 million tonnes 64% higher than last year and 20% higher than the 10-year average (ABARES September Crop Report). Janine is encouraged by this outlook, “A decent winter crop will be a real help to Australian farmers, the Ag sector and the broader Australian economy – it’s what we all need”.

Have a farming climate story to share? Please contact us.

January 1st 2020, Dry rivers and wondering if it will be another cropless year

Planting in APRIL on the back of good rain Feb-Apr

September crop inspection - Faba beans

September - the faba beans are filling the pods.

Meet the researcher

Jon Welsh

Farmer Forecast lead climate analyst

When and why did you become interested in climate?

I came home to a mixed farming business at Walcha in the mid-1990s which ended up adding a block at Coolah in the central west five years later. 1994 was my first year on the farm, which was coined a ‘once in a generation’ drought - technically every 25 years. When you own livestock, protracted droughts can be gruelling, physically and emotionally. More so with cattle that eat the drought feed as quick as a bank can print the money. My father would not sell into a depressed drought affected cattle markets, so we fed, fed, fed, and lopped kurrajong scrub. Dry times in 1994, 2002, and the first half of 2005 then another drought of 2006 and a near record breaker of 2009 seemed more than bad luck. During the contrasting 2005 dry first half and wet second half of the year I started to wonder if science could help anticipate these emphatic shifts and that our farm’s fortunes were driven by the climate. Waiting for natural springs to break out and truck drivers giving advice on Bogong moth sightings was not working on a farm management level.

So, was it simply the toll of feeding cattle that motivated you?

“our cattle in One of the many drought years, which, in hindsight, had strong correlations with both the Modoki index and IOD. If only I knew then what I know now”

Yes and no. Yes, because when you started feeding it was nearly impossible to know when to stop. We fed all our cows through a dry time for 10 months, sold them - then it rained cats and dogs 8 weeks later. Feeding over long periods costed a fortune and we almost gave back all the profits we made the year before when the dollar sunk to 45c (and stock prices were at record high levels). No, because the ‘once in a generation’ droughts that were meant to be 25 years were happening every 5 years or less. Old timers in the district used to shake their heads and say, ‘things were never like this’. The annual rainfall at Coolah could vary from 350mm to 1200mm in any given year. We used to budget for 28” but I don’t think we ever hit near that number in 13 years we were at Coolah. We bought a black soil grain farm and sold the grain crop on it for $130/t when grain was everywhere in a great season. No rain for 6 months followed, and we bought grain back to feed stock for $300/t. If science could help, then decisions to buy and sell stock and grain would be more informed – rather than simply a game of Russian Roulette.

What was your first step in understanding climate science?

There was 35 years of historical on-property rainfall records at Coolah and I started to compare them with climate cycles. I started to search online and find out about El Niño and La Niña which I thought was complete hocus pocus and witchcraft at the time. That preconception was mainly from 1997 touted as the El Niño ‘event of the century’ which was a good year with a wet spring. I cold-called CSIRO oceanography research in Hobart. I was dusty and stressed one lunch time with no end to the drought in sight. I was transferred by the receptionist to Dr Mike Pook who was very helpful, and we had a cordial chat. I was encouraged he gave airtime to a complete stranger. He then suggested I investigate the research done by ‘a bunch of scientists in Japan’ who had done some neat analysis on the Indian Ocean and the effects on the Australian climate. So, I scribbled down a Japanese surname and a research agency in Tokyo. With that encouragement I looked up the telephone country code of Japan and made an international call. To my surprise the receiver (Prof Toshio Yamagata) spoke broken English and was happy to discuss his findings. Our conversation centred around the Australian drought and farmer suicide here that must have made international news at that time. I was heartened once again and continued my climate investigations. After thinking excel was a brand of planter, I put the 35 years’ worth of monthly data into a spreadsheet as requested and sent it via email to the Japanese Agency for Marine Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). The climatic analysis that eventuated from the Japanese researchers aroused my interest in climate science and Australian rainfall.

In 2009, Japanese national broadcaster NHK, flew out to Australia to report on a farmer using Japanese research to manage droughts. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology first referred to the Indian Ocean Dipole in climate analysis in 2013

Speaking at an APEC international climate symposium in Japan – how did that happen?

In 2008 I was in routine communications with Dr Behera Swadhin, a colleague of Prof. Toshio at JAMSTEC, Japan. Halfway through the year they asked me to talk at the upcoming climate symposium at Tokyo University on “Impacts of the Indian Ocean on SE Australian Agriculture”. I did not know what it all meant but it was an expense paid trip and I figured nobody in Japan would understand me anyway, so nothing to lose. For the presentation, I managed to convince the local Graincorp contact to release some site-specific receival data from various silo locations in NSW and did some basic regression analysis on annual grain intake and Indian Ocean Indices, with the help of my Japanese mentors. I then muddled my way nervously through the 40 minutes on stage at Tokyo University. It was a relief when the presentation was over. The hospitality shown, the tours of JAMSTEC and seeing the huge climate supercomputer in Yokohama was quite an experience.

Tell us about your move into cotton research and climate extension?

The move into climate research and extension is a complete accident. Family farming businesses are complex and transitioning between generations, while accounting for siblings rarely goes in a straight line. I ended up in Narrabri in 2013 without a job and met with Cotton Research & Development Corporation for a position that included a climate extension component. With that, came a well-resourced project and very supportive cotton R&D Managers: Dr Ian Taylor and Allan Williams who instilled free-thinking and a no-limits approach to finding out whatever I needed to wherever I needed to look. I was informed the only other personnel on the project register was NSW DPI research economist from out west of Wee Waa somewhere, Janine Powell. The 4-year CRDC project gave access to CSIRO researchers, universities, international research contacts, extension specialists nationwide, conferences, as well as exposure to climate R&D among a host of other things. A new business eventuated with Janine as founding partners from the previous project, to what is Ag Econ and Farmer Forecast currently. Climate ‘researcher’ tag given in this interview is probably not as apt as climate ‘survivor’.

“A late La Niña condition finally arrived after another dry winter. A bin-busting pioneer G33 sorghum crop, pictured with agronomist, James Miller”

What areas of climate extension and research are you involved in now?

As part of the ongoing CRDC role, distilling relevant information sources for decision making for cotton growers and advisors currently covers traditional NSW and Queensland areas, but is now shifting into the tropics, which is exciting. Post-graduate lecturing at UNE and course content on agricultural climate risk management is currently in its 7th consecutive year as well as routine workshops with agronomists at decision times, also communications to Local Lands Services. In terms of climate research, the bulk of time commitment is spent on reviewing existing journals and planning new research projects for cotton and other RDCs via the Managing Climate Variability program including MLA, GRDC, SRA and AgriFutures – mainly for relevance and application to farming. However, there is some applied research coming through the pipeline I am involved in with UNSW and CSIRO, which we hope to publish in scientific journals this year.

After increasing your climate literacy over the years how has it affected your attitude to risk and farm decision making?

Partners can live in a marriage their whole life and never understand the opposite sex. In the same vein, farmers can live with the climate their whole life and not understand it, simply accept it. From my experience there have been wins and losses on the farm over the years trying to anticipate broad scale shifts in the climate, particularly when the lure of super profits beckons from a good trade. I bought a sizeable cotton seed contract once that increased 400% in six months on a dry forecast, purchased cattle for $1/kg at the end of a drought which made super profits before it rained. But there have been losses as well. Forward selling a portion of Faba Beans during a wet harvest ended in disaster after 300mm - which isn’t easily forgotten. The commodities market is clearly better educated on climate than it was 10-15 years ago, without as many short-term wild swings in prices. Climate knowledge has without doubt, helped manage our livestock numbers and manage risk over the last 3 years. With a decent standard of climate literacy, I am probably more cautious now on decisions than ten years ago - relying on black cockatoo sightings and new growth appearing on river red gums was a fools paradise. I’m not sure there’s ever a pot of gold awaiting seasonal forecast info, but it can certainly can help stop bad decisions when the evidence is there.

Climate in-brief

This weeks chart is from CLIMATEAPP. It shows MOREE, NSW YTD rainfall (RED line) ahead of median (Blue line). Click the chart to go through to www.climateapp.net.au and choose your location in ‘hows the season?’

• A dry air mass associated with a passing Rossby wave in the eastern Indian Ocean has wreaked havoc with a week ago wetter than normal multi-week forecast (NCEP report 22 Sep);

• The SAM index is predicted to plummet into a negative phase in the coming week, creating rainfall opportunities for Southern NSW, while other areas remain hostage to a drier airflow;

• 30-day SOI has exceeded La Niña thresholds (+9), although the rise in the index has been mainly associated with higher air pressure at Tahiti. The daily index shows this will continue, which is promising;

• Multi-week models are favouring rain across southern areas only. All other areas look to mid-October for the drier SAM pattern to break and tropical air masses to realign with La Nina signal and wetter IOD;

• A survey of the latest global GCMs shows broad consensus for wetter-than-normal and cooler conditions between October and December; and

• New crop research shows sorghum variety selection based on accurate seasonal forecasts can offer benefits to growers.

Australian weekly rainfall and relative landscape water balance

A positive spike in the SAM pushed some moisture into eastern Australian over the last week.

Rainfall maps courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/

A land of extremes with some regions at the lowest 1% and others at the highest 1%. most cropping regions are looking for rain to finish winter crops - particularly wa

Australian relative landscape water balance ‘root zone’ courtesy BOM

Climate driver update

All the key indicators are currently in the right spot for rain, with the exception of the SAM. Central eastern NSW and Downs regions will be held hostage to the south-westerly airflow resulting from the negative SAM. It would be unusual to see an East Coast Low develop off the Tasman or Coral Sea with the SAM in a negative phase.

What to know about climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here

Multi-week model survey (8-28 days)

With the SAM in negative phase, it seems plausible that southern areas are the only ones likely to use gumboots and umbrellas this coming fortnight. Models seem more excited generally from around the 12-30 Oct, so looks like a dry period for most areas until then.

Model form: the BOM multi-week model seems out of step with lots of green ink over eastern Australia. Those that have followed this model closely will know how dreadfully out of form it is, and a poor showing here could see a visit to the knackery. The IRI model is showing dry although due for refresh today, while the JMA has done a u-turn from a week ago, hosing down its wet 4-week forecast to now align with a mid-month rain event. Whilst often criticised, the NCEP 16-day model has been the form horse of late and its not too excited about the next two-and-a-bit weeks unless you’re down on the Murray River.

Monitoring the SAM

Recent research by Hendon et al, (2014) at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research found the Southern Annular Mode to be the leading mode of circulation variability through parts of inland eastern Australia where cotton is grown; particularly in the spring planting period.
 
A positive SAM has been proven to increase moisture supply into fronts and troughs forming in eastern Australia. The chart provided by Climate Prediction Center (US) shows the most recent observations of the SAM or (AAO). 

A negative SAM traditionally leads to a dry westerly circulation pattern through eastern Australian cropping areas.
 
BOM researchers Lim and Hendon (2013) found the SAM has the strongest connection with El-Niño Southern Oscillation in October and November – whereby the SAM is influenced most by El Niño or La Niña conditions.

Growers and advisors are encouraged to monitor the phases of the SAM together with seasonal forecasting, multi-week and short term weather models during planting. A short cartoon explaining the SAM can be found HERE. 

The SAM looks set to plummet, assisting Southern Ocean Moisture into the Murray and southern NSW areas, while keeping those northern areas dry in the next fortnight.

Antarctic Oscillation or SAM forecast below (25 Sep)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

SOI check

The 30-day SOI remains positive and indicating a La Nina, with the 90-day average firming. The latest daily air pressure values suggest the SOI shift is more related to higher pressure over Tahiti rather than Darwin. We would prefer to see the Darwin hPA contribution drop some more to encourage more moisture flow over inland Australia.

The good news is, broad-scale patterns are favouring a shift towards more moisture coming our way.

SOI explained here

Click on the image to see the latest values courtesy longpaddock.com.au

Seasonal forecast: October - December 2020 (Copy)

Model form: Coming out of a dreadful run of form from a wet winter that didn’t eventuate for central/northern areas, GCMs are keeping in-step with the developing La Niña signal with cool, wet conditions throughout the forecast area. It should be noted, inputs to the forecast are now settled. This was not the case in May when the IOD and ENSO are still finding their feet. The only model a bit less bullish on a solid wet signal was UK Met, whereas the IRI was heavy on the tropics copping a wet time in the coming three months.

What to know more about climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here

New research – choosing sorghum varieties based on seasonal forecast: does it pay?→

The value of targeted crop design depends on the diversity of traits among commercial hybrids and the availability of a skilful seasonal climate forecast to allow farmers to match hybrids and management to prevailing and expected seasonal conditions.

Agronomic management treatments included plant density, row configuration, level of irrigation and fertiliser inputs, and time of sowing. Six hybrids contrasting in maturity and tillering type were characterised relative to the industry standard MR-Buster in terms of yield potential, yield stability (bi), and an expected utility index that combines both indices. A medium-late maturity and high tillering hybrid (MR-Scorpio), had the highest utility rank and showed high bi values due to high tiller productivity. A variety of significant row spacing and configuration, and plant density effects on yield were observed, but these were inconsistent across sites and seasons. A long-term simulation experiment across contrasting environments was used to identify hybrid traits and managements capable of modifying yield stability.

 This is an open-access journal. Click on the image to be directed to the link!

Global tropical hazards 25/9/20

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

 A typically stable period for our region, there is no tropical hazards forecast. The northern Australian tropics are subject to a drier air mass moving through (a Rossby wave), although there is activity along the equator. Cyclones may start to appear off the west coast over the coming months, and gradually move eastward into next year.

Meet the researcher

Prof. Toshio Yamagata

Principal Research Scientist, Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology JAMSTEC

Professor Toshio Yamagata is one of the worlds leading climate scientists, his research findings include the discovery of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We had the pleasure of talking to Toshio last week. Here is his fascinating story.

Toshio, how did you end up becoming interested in climate science?

My hometown is about 100 kilometers north of Tokyo, and in the winter strong monsoon blows down from the mountainous areas. When I was a child, the dust from the fields was amazing. Thunderclouds come down with lightning from the mountainous areas every summer in the afternoons every day. In the spring, flowers bloomed in the gardens of each family, and in autumn, the foliage of deciduous trees was beautiful. My parents liked gardening, and I naturally became interested in the changing seasons.
At the University of Tokyo, I majored geophysics as a field where research can be done while enjoying nature. My supervisor was Professor Kozo Yoshida, who is famous for his research on coastal upwelling in the field of physical oceanography. I was interested in mathematical physics, so I chose the field of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD), which treats fluid phenomena that occur on a rotating, stratified planet.

My younger work at that time includes the weak non-linear theory that explains why anticyclonic vortices keep longevity in the ocean and Jupiter, and the mechanism by which planetary waves become unstable to form vortices. In 1976, the GFD program of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution approved me to stay there for three months as a GFD fellow. This was an amazing opportunity to meet many giants in the field, such as Drs. Joe Pedlosky, Peter Rhines, Melvin Stern, Jack Whitehead, Geroge Veronis, Andrew Ingersoll, Willem Malkus, Louis Howard etc. They opened my young eyes to the world. In particular, main lecturer was Dr. Dick Lindzen; I was impressed by his simple Albedo-feedback model for climate. I didn't understand it well at the time, but I think it may have shaped the deep psychology of becoming a climate researcher.

After turning the age 30, I gradually wanted to deal with real phenomena that occur in the atmosphere and the ocean to understand the meaning of seasons, I daringly sent a letter with my articles to Dr. Kirk Bryan of GFDL at Princeton University in the United States, asking possibility of staying a couple of years as a visiting researcher.  He immediately accepted me.  There I met Dr. George Philander, and decided to go deeper into the study of tropical climate. This set the course of my life in science; it was in my early 30s. I moved to the US with my wife and my three-year-old son. At that time, I thought that the United States might become a place for my research. In retrospect, I think there are decisive moments in life that determine what follows.

When did you become suspicious that the Indian Ocean had a see-saw condition similar to the El Niño - La Niña phases in the Pacific Oceans?

The summer of 1994 was extremely hot in Japan, and a research team investigating the cause was formed by meteorologists. I had been studying El Niño model since I was in Princeton, so I joined the group. A little later, the AGU Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting was held in Brisbane, and I had the opportunity to exchange ideas with Dr. Gary Meyers of CSIRO. He informed me that there were abnormally dry conditions in Australia, and, according to his XBT section data, the eastern Indian Ocean was also colder than normal. We checked the oceanic semiannual Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet (which is trapped along the equator and flows eastward only during the monsoon break season: spring and fall) using the satellite data (SST and altimetry data) and found there was almost no eastward Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet in fall of 1994. It was amazing!  This is the beginning of the story. It turned out that the unusual westward winds along the equator from early summer to late fall hindered the evolution of the fall Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet. By the way, the Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet (equatorial long Kelvin wave) was predicted theoretically by my supervisor Prof. Kozo Yoshida in the late 1950s and reported by Prof. Klaus Wyrtki in 1973 using the ship drift data. I was excited at finding this unusual event similar to El Nino in the Pacific and started checking all available atmospheric and oceanic data with my young postdocs from India. Those are Saji, Vinay and Behera. I named this Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and introduced the IOD index. There is another interesting story behind the scene just prior to publishing our paper in NATURE, but this will enter the realm of science historians.

Positive IOD - weaker westerly winds, cooler ocean temperatures and less convection reducing the moisture in the atmosphere over nort west australia

So a casual conversation led you to look at linkages with Australian rainfall?

Yes, the role of my old friend Gary’s suggestion at an early stage was very important.

How important was computing power in data analysis when these discoveries were made?

Negative IOD - Intensified westerly winds, warmer waters around australia, increased convection and increased chance of rain

At that time of the discovery, we started the big supercomputer project called the <Earth Simulator> with the Science and Technology Agency and NEC. However, it was not completed. We just adopted a very simple analysis using an ordinary computer.  What is most important is the curiosity to notice strange things based on solid knowledge of GFD.  Dr. David Anderson described our work in Nature in such the way that it was amazing we still can discover things with a simple method.

Farmers are curious as to how the size of the IOD regions and locations are chosen – can you explain in broad terms how this was done?

The IOD is an Indian version of El Nino/La Nina. Since I developed a simple theory of El Nino in the early 1980s in Princeton, I immediately recognized that the IOD is a “basin-wide” “equatorial” phenomenon. One problem which annoyed me was the existence of the monsoonal Somali Jet as the western boundary current. The mechanism of this oceanic current is totally different.  So, we deliberately excluded the region off Somalia.

Do you think an air pressure measurement, like the SOI would help communicate the Indian Ocean?

We prepared the atmospheric component of IOD, but we could not include that part in our Nature paper. We tried to publish it in the journal of Royal Meteorological Society but it was declined because the editor thought that the IOD was a dubious concept. So, I published it with Dr. Behera in Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan with a slightly shocking title to show how the pressure at Darwin is disturbed by the IOD. Some skeptics still thought IOD in the Indian Ocean was just a response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. Later on, we, and many others, published so many papers on how IOD influences the climate in many places on the globe.

Saji, N.H, Goswami, B.N, Vinayachandran, P.N & Yamagata, T. (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical indian ocean

The first IOD scientific paper, published in 1999 of which you co-authored has been cited an incredible 4,400 times, yet this climate driver was not acknowledged by the Australian Bureau of Met in communications until around 2012. Can you remember some of the debate in the scientific community about the reality of IOD?

There was a tough time.  But almost all my highly cited papers in my career were originally rejected.  I know the originality denies common sense (Please see my address from Dean’s office in 2011 (right after the Tohoku disaster) ). I forgot the exact date. Perhaps, it was the early 2000s when BMRC (at that time) organized a special session and invite me, perhaps to ask me to retreat from the IOD concept. However, I was prepared well with carrying more than 200 OHP sheets (so heavy!) to respond to all questions expected. Almost every week, I had a strategic meeting at FRSGC with my young postdocs and they helped me a lot.  I remember I said at the opening of my talk at the BMRC conference that “this is a boxing game and I am afraid of the home town decision. However, I find one lucky aspect; the judge is my friend Gary Meyers who understands my work.” One of the skeptics Dr. Neville Nicholls was there.  He was very close to the concept of IOD but, unfortunately, he mixed up several phenomena and retreated his idea on the Nichols’ dipole. After the conference, he, with his wife, invited me to a nice restaurant and I remember we had a wonderful evening.  He said, “Toshi, as you know, I cannot support your IOD explicitly but I never criticize it anymore.” I admired his attitude and said,” You have a real knight spirit.  He replied, “ You have a real Samurai spirit.” I was really happy to be a scientist.

How do you think technology can help better predict the IOD, as it’s a fairly tricky driver to nail down from an Australian climate point of view – would more comprehensive ocean monitoring help?

IOD is more difficult to predict than El Nino/Southern Oscillation because of many players of different time and space scales at one stage.  However, our predicting skill is improving day by day thanks to efforts of climate research agencies and institutions. We have just published a paper which discussed why we were successful in predicting the 2019 super IOD; we have realized the El Nino Modoki (another important climate mode in the Pacific) played an important role in triggering as well as strengthening the IOD. Efforts to develop the Ind-Pacific Ocean observing system are very important and we need to support the international partnership fostered by IO GOOS and WCRP.