2021 Autumn seasonal outlook

Bullish. That sums up the next three months for most areas. Warm waters from the La Nina appear slow to decay. Waters that have been cool in the Coral Sea are warming up. The strongest signals seem to be through central-eastern Australia, with cool/average temps across the continent.

The combined 5x North American models (bottom RHS) seem to be anticipating moisture from NW Australia to stream down into SE Aust. Whereas the BOM (top left) and combined 5x European model (top right) is favouring Queensland and NSW areas in the coming months.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

NCEP TC watch is showing activity in the NW of Australia, the Gulf region and FN Qld persisting through February.

The MJO signal is weak and not near the Australian region. The outlook is for more of the same with cloudiness in the northern Australian region forecast to continue through to the first week in March.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

NCEP TC watch is showing activity in the NW of Australia and in the Coral Sea next week with heavy rain over the northern tips of Australia.

The MJO has skipped phases and has emerged in Phase 7 in the Western Pacific Ocean and not phases 4-5 where we needed it to hopefully influence the eastern Australian climate.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

NCEP TC watch is not overly excited about cyclones around Australia in the next fortnight, which is not what was expected at the peak of the La Niña. All the activity is currently further west in the Indian Ocean.

Rather, the approaching weak MJO signal looks to be bringing rain right across the tropics for the end of January. The next week will be more interesting.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

NCEP TC watch is not overly excited about cyclones in the next fortnight.

Consistent with NCEP, Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) at ACCU weather shows potential cyclone development occurring throughout January is low, with a tropical low more likely with increased cloudiness occurring through the whole month (RHS bottom chart).

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

Some action in the tropics at last! The noticeable features in the chart below show a potential cyclone development in the western Timor Sea and above normal rainfall for the Qld gulf and NE NSW next week (top chart).

Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) at ACCU weather shows a low potential cyclone development occurring 19-23 December in Australia’s north-west (bottom chart).

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

Some action in the tropics at last! The noticeable features in the chart below show a potential cyclone development in the western Timor Sea and above normal rainfall for the Qld gulf and tropical coast next week (bottom chart).

Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) at ACCU weather reports this morning, the potential cyclone development occurring 7-12 December in Australia’s north-west.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

The noticeable features in the chart below show the green colours in the Indian Ocean where the MJO currently resides, not really progressing eastwards towards Australia. When the tropical moisture in the Pacific begins to move Easterly (towards Australia), this will increase the probability of our cyclonic activity and rainfall.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

The wet season traditionally starts in November, but little activity in terms of tropical cyclones or rain depressions, mainly due to the MJO being in Phase 8 (western Indian Ocean). Click on the image to go through to the CPC website.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

 A typically stable period for our northern tropics with the wet season not quite upon us. There are no cyclones or hazards forecast. Interestingly, the tropical hazards outlook has picked up high rainfall for eastern Australia 21-27 October. Click on the image to go through to the CPC website.

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

 A typically stable period for our northern tropics, there are no cyclones or hazards forecast. In contrast the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea is very active. Click on the image to go through to the CPC website.

Cyclone season 2020-21: almost double last years cyclones anticipated

With the Australian cyclone season less than one month away, AccuWeather meteorologists say Australia may have not only a more active tropical season than the last but also one with more storms making landfall on the nation's shores.

During the 2019-2020 hurricane season, the Australian basin produced nine cyclones, slightly below the average of 11, with the first cyclone developing in a late start to the season. Cyclone Blake, which formed off of northwestern Australia on Jan. 4, 2020, came two months after the official start of the season, which runs from November to April.

The first cyclone of this season is expected to form before the end of December, kicking off a potentially more active season for the basin.

For the full article, click here: https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/australian-tropical-season-to-pull-a-topsy-turvy-from-last-year/823466

Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

 A typically stable period for our region, there are no tropical hazards forecast. In contrast the Atlantic has already experienced a record breaking amount of activity this hurricane season (Jun - Nov). Click on the image to go through to the CPC website.

Global tropical hazards 25/9/20

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

 A typically stable period for our region, there is no tropical hazards forecast. The northern Australian tropics are subject to a drier air mass moving through (a Rossby wave), although there is activity along the equator. Cyclones may start to appear off the west coast over the coming months, and gradually move eastward into next year.