9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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The European ECMWF 9-day model shows a kaleidoscope of colour, with rainfall predicted through northern and eastern Australia in the coming week and a half. A positive SAM is pushing moisture into NSW and rain is also showing in the desert channels and other regions through the interior. However, models are divided, so its there is real value in checking the Meteologix model survey to see how the predicted amounts differ, to better evaluate your chances of rain through this period. Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

Image loop courtesy Meteologix

Image loop courtesy Meteologix

9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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The European ECMWF 9-day model shows good falls in the SE as well as inland tropical areas at lower latitudes. A quick peek at the refreshed multi-week models this morning shows non-consensus for the remainder of February, with the JMA calling for wet conditions continuing, while the BOM and IRI (US) are sitting on the fence for neither wet nor dry. Probably safe to assume storms will be around and temperatures will continue to be milder than normal. Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

Image loop courtesy Meteologix

Image loop courtesy Meteologix

9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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The European ECMWF 9-day model shows good falls in the SE as well as the same tropical areas that are already quite wet. NCEP is more conservative, although the BOMs 8-day WATL model is more encouraging. Once we are through the 1st week of Feb, then opportunities for rain look reasonably thin, so caution required.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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The European ECMWF 9-day model shows spectacular colours and rainfall for the NT Big Rivers and Kununurra between now and 31 Jan. The Murray Darling Basin looks to miss out, but a peek at the updated multi-week models shows something more general could be on for 2nd week in February, as the MJO strengthens into Phase 6. More details next Friday, as we have a closer look.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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The European ECMWF 9-day model shows rainfall in the parched Fitzroy Valley and further north in the tropics in the forecast period with storms also occurring through the northern NSW ranges.

This mornings updated multi-week models show rain for western NSW at the end of January and continued storm activity in the tropics. Broad inland areas of Qld and the Murray Darling Basin may see a 2-3 week period of reasonable fine weather (after this 9 day period), as we wait for the MJO to return to the Australian region.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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The European ECMWF 9-day model shows rainfall deepening into central NSW and NE Queensland. Tropical moisture continuing for NT agricultural areas also.

A wet NSW and S Qld forecast is showing a classic positive (wet) phase - SAM signature, with abundant moisture flowing into those areas. A very warm northern Coral Sea is feeding moisture into the northern Qld tropics.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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The European ECMWF 9-day model shows rainfall deepening into desert areas of Western Australia with a weak pulse of the MJO now in Phase 5 in Australia’s north-west. The rainfall situation is set to become more interesting in the next fortnight as the MJO is anticipated to strengthen as it propagates further eastward towards the Pacific Ocean.

Refreshed multi-week models are consistently showing cool, wet conditions for NSW and Qld areas right through until 3 January 2021, so the La Niña might be settling in after all.

More details in next Fridays fortnightly analysis.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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Fresh today, the European ECMWF 9-day model is bullish on rainfall for large tracts of eastern and northern Australia. A weak MJO is camped to the north of Australia and the waters in the north-west are very warm. The synoptic pattern shows low air pressure deepening over western and central Australia, consistent with the rainfall outlook.

The tropics have finally come to life on a decent scale. While this ECMWF model is bullish, it is prudent to survey other global models for refining weather-dependent decisions over the coming week.

Visit meteologix.com/au and navigate your way the Model XL forecast for your location.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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Fresh today, the European ECMWF 9-day model shows rainfall deepening into desert areas of Western Australia with a weak pulse of the MJO now in Phase 5 in Australia’s north-west. The rainfall situation is set to become more interesting in the next fortnight as the MJO is anticipated to strengthen as it propagates further eastward towards the Pacific Ocean.

Refreshed multi-week models are consistently showing cool, wet conditions for NSW and Qld areas right through until 3 January 2021, so the La Niña might be turning up after all.

More details in next Fridays fortnightly analysis.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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In case you missed it - Summer seasonal outlook Podcast

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Last week, we congregated in the Narrabri Max FM community radio studios to record our take on what’s going on with the climate at the moment and the outlook for the next 3 months of summer.

To access the 11-minute recording, click here: 👉 https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=765308

For those interested, the IPO poster (image below) mentioned in the podcast can be found here:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/map-app/

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IPO.png

Summer seasonal outlook - Podcast out now!

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Earlier this week, we congregated in the Narrabri Max FM community radio studios to record our take on what’s going on with the climate at the moment and the outlook for the next 3 months of summer.

To access the 11-minute recording, click here: 👉 https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=765308

For those interested, the IPO poster (image below) mentioned in the podcast can be found here:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/map-app/

Ad for LinkedIn and social.png
IPO.png

9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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Fresh today, the European ECMWF 9-day model shows rainfall deepening into desert areas of Western Australia with the MJO approaching. Kununurra, Katherine and Gulf areas should see a break in the next week or so. Some moisture also filtering down the Qld coast and scattered areas of NSW inland and ranges. Date range: 3rd - 13th December.

Updated multi-week models are still bullish this morning for a general rain event December weeks 2-4, consistent with the last fortnight.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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Fresh today, the European ECMWF 9-day model shows rainfall for the next week mainly confined to Katherine, Kununurra, the parched northern NSW tablelands and a few handy falls further south at the end of the forecast loop. Date range: 26th November - 6th December.

Updated multi-week models are still bullish this morning for a general rain event December weeks 2-3, and a return to more normal temps for the remainder of the month. A full review next Friday.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

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Fresh this morning, this European model shows rainfall for the next week mainly confined to Katherine, Kununurra and the parched NSW northern ranges. Some handy falls possible along the Great Dividing Range further south. Date range: 26th November - 6 December.

The remainder of December looks interesting. Air pressure at Darwin is now at 1005 hPa, which is well below average - exhibiting monsoon-like characteristics. The bug-bear at the moment is cooling sea temperatures around the Arafura and Coral Seas, not consistent with a La Niña like conditions. In turn, the MJO is losing steam when it comes from west-east and arrives in the Australian region. The latest multi-week models are still bullish for a general change and rain week 2-3 (coinciding with a weak MJO) of December and a return to average temps.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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