9-day ECMWF rainfall outlook

Fresh this morning, this European model shows rainfall for the next week mainly confined to Katherine, Kununurra and the parched NSW northern ranges. Some handy falls possible along the Great Dividing Range further south. Date range: 26th November - 6 December.

The remainder of December looks interesting. Air pressure at Darwin is now at 1005 hPa, which is well below average - exhibiting monsoon-like characteristics. The bug-bear at the moment is cooling sea temperatures around the Arafura and Coral Seas, not consistent with a La Niña like conditions. In turn, the MJO is losing steam when it comes from west-east and arrives in the Australian region. The latest multi-week models are still bullish for a general change and rain week 2-3 (coinciding with a weak MJO) of December and a return to average temps.

Access courtesy https://meteologix.com/au

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