A big improvement over the last fortnight in eastern Australia and parts of Qld previously showing red. The salient feature is the drying trends in WA, SA and Vic. Farmers in those regions will be hoping for the wet phase of the Indian Ocean kicks-in sooner rather than later. Livestock from WA reportedly still being trucked east across the country to greener pastures also.
The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop.
The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is starting to show some model consensus towards wet phase this spring. The last wet event was 2016 and geographically, tends to impact areas from Dubbo south through Vic and SA.
The ENSO Modoki is yet to be updated from early March. Modoki and this wet phase of the Indian Ocean could be the story of 2021.
The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely
This is very interesting. Along with La Nina Modoki, could well be the story of 2021. Forecasts this far out need to be taken with a pinch of salt, however, no need for alarm bells for a repeat of 2019 when we had a strong dry phase.
Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
The MJO has come to life in the Indian Ocean in Phase 2-3. Guidance suggests it will arrive north of Australia in the first week of April, however, rainfall impact looks to be reduced to the top-end and the Gulf region at this stage.
The next 3 weeks looks much drier for many areas in NSW and Qld. 2 of 3 Multi-week models showing emphatic dry tercile forecasts in a month (April) that is one of the driest in the calendar year for most inland locations anyway.
The current updated seasonal precipitation outlook is still positive from Apr-Jun. Those global models surveyed show above average probabilities of wetter and cooler-than-normal conditions in the next 3 months.
Some tropical cyclone activity in the north-western tropics and possibly the Gulf of Carpentaria in the coming fortnight, as the MJO interacts with warm SSTs as it passes through phases 5-6.
The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much over the entire continent and similarly to australias north and west.
only small totals in s NSW and the tropics in the last 24 hrs after a memorable week for most. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across such a broad area of the continent. Emerald seems to have been in a rain shadow as is other parts of the gulf over the past week.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17
A big improvement over the last fortnight as one would expect! Perfect timing for winter cropping and livestock producers coming into winter.
This is last heat wave plot for the year! Unlike other years, no story here for anywhere in Australia.
About heat waves
Heatwaves are calculated using the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures over the next three days, comparing this to actual temperatures over the previous thirty days, and then comparing these same three days to the 'normal' temperatures expected for that particular location. Using this calculation takes into account people's ability to adapt to the heat. For example, the same high temperature will be felt differently by residents in Moree compared to those in Orange, who are not used to the higher range of temperatures experienced in Moree. The full forecast can be accessed here: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/
The MJO is showing a weak pulse in Phase 1 in the African region, however, the guidance suggests it’s unlikely to influence our climate for the next fortnight.
The next 3 weeks could see some game-changing rainfall events, with all multi-week models showing broad consensus for rainfall across eastern Australia.
The long term situation looks more nuanced in 2021. ENSO is heading towards neutral, as is the IOD. However, the Modoki index maybe the climate story of 2021.
Some tropical cyclone activity in the northwestern tropics and possibly the Gulf of Carpentaria in the coming fortnight, with FN Qld gaining a reprieve from recent wetter conditions.
The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much over the entire continent. The large area of low pressure makes the MJO virtually indiscernible.
Some excellent falls in Southern Qld catchments overnight - that badly needed rain. Click on the link for an updated map. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across the tropics, Central Qld and parts of eastern Australia. March looks like it could be wetter than February.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17
A bit drier this week, with SE Australia and most of Qld still needing moisture. Central-eastern areas and WA well set-up for winter crop 2021.
The latest IRI Enso outlook is unchanged since February (RHS). Still not a strong signal for La Niña to meet thresholds, but none-the-less El Niño still a long-shot for 2021 at this stage.
ENSO Modoki, one of the few autumn drivers statistically significant during winter crop planting, although weakening, is showing a continuation of the current wet signal. This is encouraging for much of northern Australia and the central-eastern Australian cropping belt. We need to keep an eye on this. The current signal is holding on the right side of neutral.
The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is inherently erratic this time of year. The current JAMSTEC IOD outlook is not offering much and looks to be quite close to zero in the neutral range.
The chart above shows higher-than-normal probabilities (blue line - red arrow) of the La Niña hanging around. In the critical spring months, the board Nino3.4 indicator shows a possible La Nina return. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume
The scientists at JAMSTEC developed the Modoki index. The red line is the mean of the model run. It shows this driver in neutral-wet phase through our Autumn and winter, which can do nothing but good for rainfall prospects!
Forecast chart courtesy: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
Very little extreme heat to trouble the scorers in the coming week through northern and eastern Australia.
About heat waves
Heatwaves are calculated using the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures over the next three days, comparing this to actual temperatures over the previous thirty days, and then comparing these same three days to the 'normal' temperatures expected for that particular location. Using this calculation takes into account people's ability to adapt to the heat. For example, the same high temperature will be felt differently by residents in Moree compared to those in Orange, who are not used to the higher range of temperatures experienced in Moree. The full forecast can be accessed here: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/
The MJO is showing a weak pulse in Phase 5 in the Coral Sea, however, the guidance suggests its unlikely to influence our climate for the next fortnight.
Following a wet few days in the coming weather forecast for NSW coast and ranges, March looks much more benign for regions other than the east coast and ranges.
The Autumn seasonal outlook is bullish for wetter than average conditions. Central-eastern areas appear a higher probability to receive above-normal precipitation.
Some tropical cyclone activity in the northwestern tropics and the Coral Sea anticipated in the coming fortnight, with the MJO in the Coral Sea.
The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much over the entire continent. The large area of low pressure makes the MJO virtually indiscernible.
Some excellent falls in Central Qld catchments overnight - that badly needed rain. Click on the link for an updated map. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across the tropics and parts of eastern Australia. February is the wettest month in the calendar for many agricultural areas but many on the Downs still need more rain.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17
Winter cropping zones have been largely replenished with the exception of SE Queensland. This may improve in the next few days as well.
The combination of subsoil moisture and a favourable seasonal outlook for 2021 (see last weeks long-range outlook) is destined to have ramifications for cropping input prices and equally, commodity prices in the longer-term.
The latest IRI Enso outlook has improved again since January (RHS). Still not a strong signal for La Niña to meet thresholds, but none-the-less El Niño still a long-shot for 2021 at this stage.
ENSO Modoki, one of the few autumn drivers statistically significant during winter crop planting, although weakening, is showing a continuation of the current wet signal. This is encouraging for much of the central-eastern Australian cropping belt. We need to keep an eye on this.
The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is inherently erratic this time of year. The current JAMSTEC IOD outlook is not offering much and looks to be quite close to zero in the neutral range.
With the national AWAP soil moisture map (from last Friday) looking replenished and with this sort of outlook, Australian grain markets will probably start to sense supply pressure at some stage if this continues.
Charts Courtesy IRI (US)
The chart above shows higher-than-normal probabilities (blue line - red arrow) of the La Niña hanging around. In the critical spring months, the board Nino3.4 indicator shows a possible La Nina return. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume
With 4 or 5 North American models bundled together here, one of which is NASA (which overshoots wet) one can assume the slight La Nina signal, coupled with a weak La Nina Modoki has produced the wetter outlook for winter across the eastern half of Australia.
Forecast chart courtesy: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
The synoptic situation is set up to trap some heat across eastern Qld coastal and adjacent areas eartly next week. Not much extreme heat elsewhere with remaining areas enjoying mild conditions.
About heat waves
Heatwaves are calculated using the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures over the next three days, comparing this to actual temperatures over the previous thirty days, and then comparing these same three days to the 'normal' temperatures expected for that particular location. Using this calculation takes into account people's ability to adapt to the heat. For example, the same high temperature will be felt differently by residents in Moree compared to those in Orange, who are not used to the higher range of temperatures experienced in Moree. The full forecast can be accessed here: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/
The MJO is active in Phase 7 out in the Western Pacific Ocean, however unlikely to influence our climate for the remainder of February.
Following a wet few days in the coming weather forecast for many areas, NSW looks to be the best chance for rain for the remainder of the month.
The Southern Annular Mode is firmly in positive phase, which will aid in moisture circulation for storms through eastern areas of NSW and sth Qld coast in the coming fortnight
Very little in the way of cyclone activity in the northern tropics, with the MJO out in the western Pacific Ocean.
The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much over the entire continent. The JMA model is predicting this to continue for the coming weeks, although thats the only model doing so.
Some excellent falls in Central Qld catchments overnight - that badly needed rain. Click on the link for an updated map. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across the tropics and parts of eastern Australia. February is the wettest month in the calendar for many agricultural areas but many still need more rain.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17
Winter cropping zones have been largely replenished with the exception of SE Queensland, setting up the 2021 crop.
Not much extreme heat to trouble the scorers in the coming week with all areas except coastal Qld enjoying mild conditions.
About heat waves
Heatwaves are calculated using the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures over the next three days, comparing this to actual temperatures over the previous thirty days, and then comparing these same three days to the 'normal' temperatures expected for that particular location. Using this calculation takes into account people's ability to adapt to the heat. For example, the same high temperature will be felt differently by residents in Moree compared to those in Orange, who are not used to the higher range of temperatures experienced in Moree. The full forecast can be accessed here: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/
After a period of inactivity, the MJO has leapfrogged the eastern Australian longitudes and reappeared NE of Australia in the Western Pacific ocean, and in doing to taking much-needed moisture with it
Very little on the horizon in the way of general rain forecast for most areas after the first week in February, other than random storm events
The Southern Annular Mode has made a resurgence into positive (wet) phase again, which will aid in moisture circulation for storms through eastern areas of NSW and Qld in the coming fortnight
The MJO phase will be critical in the coming fortnight as it passes through Phases 7-8, away from the Australian region, and will require close monitoring to track heat waves and the next general rain event
The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much a mirror image of the 7-day rainfall chart below, with qld areas remaining dry over the last week.
Some excellent falls in the southern half of NSW overnight, and kununurra continues its stellar January run of totals. Click on the link for an updated map. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across the tropics and parts of CQ desperately in need of rain. NSW has been on the skinnier end of falls in the last week.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17
The latest IRI Enso outlook has improved since last month (RHS). Still not a strong signal for La Niña to meet thresholds, but none-the-less El Niño a long-shot at this stage.
ENSO Modoki, one of the few autumn drivers statistically significant during winter crop planting, is showing a continuation of the current wet signal. This is encouraging for much of the central-eastern Australian cropping belt. We need to keep an eye on this.
The Indian Ocean outlook is inherently erratic this time of year. The current outlook is not offering much, except that it may lean towards wetter phase in spring, which is when it has the most influence on our climate.
Charts Courtesy IRI (US) and Jamstec (JPN).
The chart above shows higher-than-normal probabilities (blue line - red arrow) of the La Niña hanging around in at least the autumn and early winter. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume
The Modoki does have an impact on our late Autumn, early winter climate. This is worth keeping an eye on as it could have a strong influence on east-coast planting rains and grain markets.
Forecast chart courtesy: Jamstec
This shows the IOD dipping towards negative in the spring, which is good. Forecast chart courtesy: Jamstec
Inland Qld and much of NSW set for some extreme heat during Australia day with all remaining areas enjoying mild conditions.
About heat waves
Heatwaves are calculated using the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures over the next three days, comparing this to actual temperatures over the previous thirty days, and then comparing these same three days to the 'normal' temperatures expected for that particular location. Using this calculation takes into account people's ability to adapt to the heat. For example, the same high temperature will be felt differently by residents in Moree compared to those in Orange, who are not used to the higher range of temperatures experienced in Moree. The full forecast can be accessed here: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/
After a fairly busy 4 weeks, the climate is settling into more or a benign state for much of northern and eastern Australia, as we wait for tropical moisture to arrive from an active monsoon in the Indian Ocean.
Very little in the way of cyclone activity expected in the coming fortnight, as waters cool slightly to Australia’s north
The Southern Annular Mode is predicted to retreat into negative values, before recovering into more neutral or slightly positive numbers and not impact our climate.
Multi-week models showing little excitement in terms of rainfall for areas other than FN Qld and the northern tropics. Other than patchy storm rain, vast areas of NSW and Qld may experience cooler and drier conditions out to week 2 February.
The MJO is difficult to track at present. The latest NCEP report states “stationary La Niña signal continuing to dominate the overall global tropical convective field”.
The chart above shows higher-than-normal air pressure over Southern Australia for the last 7-days and lower air pressure to the NW.
Some patchy falls confined to the NSW, Qld and NT coast and ranges in the last day or so. Click on the link for an updated map. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across the tropics and parts of CQ desperately in need of rain. NSW has been on the skinnier end of falls in the last week.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17
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