2021 Long-range Outlook

• The latest IRI Enso outlook has improved again since January (RHS). Still not a strong signal for La Niña to meet thresholds, but none-the-less El Niño still a long-shot for 2021 at this stage.

• ENSO Modoki, one of the few autumn drivers statistically significant during winter crop planting, although weakening, is showing a continuation of the current wet signal. This is encouraging for much of the central-eastern Australian cropping belt. We need to keep an eye on this.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is inherently erratic this time of year. The current JAMSTEC IOD outlook is not offering much and looks to be quite close to zero in the neutral range.

  With the national AWAP soil moisture map (from last Friday) looking replenished and with this sort of outlook, Australian grain markets will probably start to sense supply pressure at some stage if this continues.

  Charts Courtesy IRI (US)

The chart above shows higher-than-normal probabilities (blue line - red arrow) of the La Niña hanging around. In the critical spring months, the board Nino3.4 indicator shows a possible La Nina return. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

IRI winter precip forecast (16 Feb 2021)

With 4 or 5 North American models bundled together here, one of which is NASA (which overshoots wet) one can assume the slight La Nina signal, coupled with a weak La Nina Modoki has produced the wetter outlook for winter across the eastern half of Australia.

Forecast chart courtesy: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/