2021 Long-range Outlook

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  • The latest IRI Enso outlook has improved since last month (RHS). Still not a strong signal for La Niña to meet thresholds, but none-the-less El Niño a long-shot at this stage.

  • ENSO Modoki, one of the few autumn drivers statistically significant during winter crop planting, is showing a continuation of the current wet signal. This is encouraging for much of the central-eastern Australian cropping belt. We need to keep an eye on this.

  • The Indian Ocean outlook is inherently erratic this time of year. The current outlook is not offering much, except that it may lean towards wetter phase in spring, which is when it has the most influence on our climate.

    Charts Courtesy IRI (US) and Jamstec (JPN).

The chart above shows higher-than-normal probabilities (blue line - red arrow) of the La Niña hanging around in at least the autumn and early winter. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

The chart above shows higher-than-normal probabilities (blue line - red arrow) of the La Niña hanging around in at least the autumn and early winter. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Indian Ocean and Modoki Indices

The Modoki does have an impact on our late Autumn, early winter climate. This is worth keeping an eye on as it could have a strong influence on east-coast planting rains and grain markets.Forecast chart courtesy: Jamstec

The Modoki does have an impact on our late Autumn, early winter climate. This is worth keeping an eye on as it could have a strong influence on east-coast planting rains and grain markets.

Forecast chart courtesy: Jamstec

This shows the IOD dipping towards negative in the spring, which is good. Forecast chart courtesy: Jamstec

This shows the IOD dipping towards negative in the spring, which is good. Forecast chart courtesy: Jamstec