Analysis: Apr-Jun season predictions v observations

A look back to mid-March 2021 at the seasonal forecast issued for Apr-Jun showed a wet signal very for the top end, based on the warm Arafura Sea and Ningaloo Region off the WA coast. The BOM model hosed down expectations with a neutral forecast for all other areas, which was pretty close. The IRI model was picking up activity in eastern NSW as was the European CS3 group of models, which did occur in a few pockets. None of the predictions picked up the broad-scale decile 2-3 rainfall across 50% of the continent, although temperatures were reasonably close to what was predicted. None of the models really nailed it through this period but this also highlights the difficulties when the climate drivers are finding their feet. The trophies stay in the cabinet again this month!

Apr-Jun rain (LHS) and temp (RHS) deciles