Analysis: Mar-May season predictions v observations

A look back to mid-February 2021 at the seasonal forecast issued for Mar-May showed a wet signal virtually split between three model sources between southern, central and northern parts of eastern Australia. The observations for that period (top chart, below) shows a reasonable representation of the models over the period with a few exceptions: the Vic Mallee was hammered with decile 1-3, not picked up and Eastern Qld was on the leaner end of rainfall. The CMCC European model probably did the best of the three and also picked up the central-Australian rainfall extending across from moisture off the WA coast. No clear winner this Autumn among any of the temp or rainfall predictions, again validates the difficulty during this time of year.