Analysis: Feb-Apr season predictions v observations

A look back to mid-January 2021 at the seasonal forecast issued for Feb-Apr showed a broad wet signal for NSW and SE Qld areas. The observations for that period (top chart, below) shows a reasonable representation of the models over the period with a few exceptions: the Vic Mallee was hammered with decile 1-3, not picked up and SE Qld was on the leaner end of rainfall. However, the WA and NSW areas were definitely smiling after the wet predictions came to fruition in a period where model skill is perceived to be lesser than during the winter and spring. The BOMs ACCESS-S model was not far off and took the honours with ECMWF not far behind in 2nd place. Models fared much better during this period than the 3-months before when the trophies never left the shop.