Multi-week planner (8-28 days)

The main feature of todays multi-week planner is the stark contrast in outputs between global models. After the refresh this morning it’s almost as if the IRI model has seen the MJO fading as it hits the Australian region and is calling for a dry month of May. This dry prediction is at odds with the BOMS ACCESS-S model which looks like it has factored in the additional convection and cloud approaching from week 3 onwards (see MJO commentary, bottom chart) and is more confident of precipitation in line with “weather” models. Experience says longer-term models have poor skill picking up systems from an easterly direction, so this will be an interesting finish to May. The ECMWF 9-day model is bullish for a wet mid-May for central-eastern areas.

Model commentary: The horses have jumped out of the barriers and gone in all directions this week! IRI has turned and run towards the winning post anti-clockwise after a wet forecast last fortnight. The BOM has pinned its ears back and commenced the next 3-4 weeks with a wet purpose, although has a bad habit of its jockey falling off in the home straight. The JMA is quite content to sit mid-field with cover, unwilling to take a chance either way. NCEP has shown some hope for S Qld areas keeping the punters well-lubricated in the bar on the bend towards the home straight.

Go to 10-day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as rain events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au