2021 May-Jul seasonal outlook

A survey of 12 international models condensed in the below charts (top both and bottom LHS) shows optimism for winter rain diminished somewhat compared to a month ago, although a hint of a wet winter from the IRI ensemble. Temperature predictions (bottom RHS) show a similar theme with no signal for cooler or warmer conditions. This is not unusual given most indicators are quite close to neutral. The longer-range charts do favour a wet Indian Ocean Dipole developing and influencing our spring with wetter than normal conditions favoured. More on that next week.

Order of Figures clockwise from top left: ACCESS-S tercile forecast, CS3 multi-model tercile (ECMWF, UK, France, Italy, US, Japan), 5x North American models combined on the bottom showing rainfall (LHS) and temperature (RHS).