Global tropical hazards

(from U.S Climate Prediction Center)

NCEP TC watch is showing activity in the NW of Australia in week 1 and the Coral Sea region for both 7-day outlooks.

The MJO signal is weak and not near the Australian region. The outlook is for the tropical convective activity to move into the Coral Sea region, with the sea surface temps (SSTs) there finally warming up (bottom chart). The Gulf and Arafura Sea drier outlook mirrors the average/cool SSTs.