The Tropical Hazards map shows the passing MJO to Australias north generating rainfall across the Maritime Continent, with no influence on tropical mainland Australia during the next fortnight. Apart from warmer SSTs, it’s difficult once again to see supporting fundamentals for the BOMs extremely bullish wet July forecast (bottom chart), as the SAM also retreats towards neutral. NSW look to be the most likely area to receive wetter than normal falls this month. Check your median totals for July, as northern regions favour this category. With the exception of the NT and Ord, temperatures will likely remain normal also.

Model commentary: A quick look at the bookmaker's selections from a fortnight ago shows the US colt, NCEP first past the winning post with pre-race tactics and sticking to the rails over the distance paying dividends. The JMA also showed similar national pride with a stellar gallop on a wet track, true to form. The media hype around the ACCESS-S gelding showed glimpses of form with punters now a little more confident in the mount after recent surgery. Normally solid performing US mare IRI was more cautious before the race and sat mid-field throughout and failed to fire in the straight.

Go to 10-day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as rain events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au