Multi-week model analysis (8-28 days)

Some spectacular colours coming through on the weather models to start 2021. However, when we move further into January the models seem to be picking up on cooling waters in the Coral Sea and again in Australia’s north. After January week 1, some caution for Qld areas, with the exception of FN Qld that cool and dry weather might persist through January. On the other hand, the activity seems to favour NSW areas, with cool, moist air continuing to feed into that state for much of the next 1-4 week period.

Model commentary: The IRI is certainly more optimistic for NSW in January and bearish for Kununurra and the NT Big Rivers through the next 4 weeks. The JMA is again aligned for rain across NSW and a much weaker rainfall signal for a general event in the 2nd half of January which is not overly convincing. Some small to moderate totals showing on the 16-day NCEP models, although this favour the ranges and FN Qld tropics. The BOM ACCESS-S model is picking up where it left off in 2020, with rose coloured glasses for all areas in January. I’m not sure why I bother with it, but those results need to be taken with a grain (or tablespoon) of salt. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au