Multi-week model analysis (8-28 days)

The broad-scale pattern has finally aligned to some degree, with cooler moist air favoured to camp in the Australian region for possibly the next three to four weeks. The guidance suggests impacts and moisture receding into January, although this will largely be determined by the next move of the MJO - which is currently not acting to script. One concern for regional Qld areas is the 7-day SST anomaly showing a cooling of waters in the Coral Sea again, reducing moisture availability - at odds with the La Niña signal.

Model commentary: scrolling through the various weekly forecast intervals, the peak opportunity for rainfall appears to be through until around the 28 December. The JMA model is bullish wet for a month, albeit tapering off in January. The IRI model seems to be picking up on the cooling Coral Sea and is less enthusiastic about January. ACCESS-S continues unabated for a wet finish to December, so nothing has changed with it. The 16-day NCEP has small sporadic falls showing in the majority of areas, much more cautious even than the 9-day ECMWF loop. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au