Multi-week model analysis (8-28 days)

A signal coming through from the multi-week models for a general event around 4-14 December. With the MJO currently inactive, models seem to suggest the current high-pressure acting as an umbrella across eastern Australia will abate and moisture from the NW and NE can penetrate inland areas during the first half of December. Despite many areas will register low rainfall totals for November, big-picture drivers remain reasonably bullish (particularly for Southern NSW and NE QLD).

Model commentary: a surprise this morning to see the typically doomsday IRI model showing general moisture for the first half of December! The interesting feature of the JMA wet forecast was the easterly systems developing along the coast and ranges of NSW, which we’ve not seen since the Autumn. The 16-day NCEP is more of a ‘weather’ model and it was not too excited about anything much except rain in the Ord and Katherine areas. The BOMs ACCESS model has been off with the pixies since May, but now in-line with the other two multi-week models showing a wet first half of December, the next fortnight or so will be interesting to see how this pans out. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au