Multi-week model survey (8-28 days)

The rain event moving across Australia looks to favour the channel country, central and southern NSW areas. All areas look like they’ll get something with the arrival of some La Niña moisture, at last.

Model form: the BOM multi-week model seems out of step with lots of blue/green ink over eastern Australia. Those that have followed this model closely will know how dreadfully out of form it is this winter cropping season. Its unusual to see a wet signal in the IRI model, with a normally very cautious mount. The NCEP 16-day model has been the form horse of late and its not too excited about the next two-and-a-bit weeks, unless you’re in the channel country.