Monitoring the MJO this Autumn
/The chart below shows a pulse of the MJO strengthening in Phases 1 and 2 out in the Western Indian Ocean and then losing strength as it approaches the Australian region in Phase 4. However, the bottom chart (courtesy NCEP expert MJO report on Tuesday) shows tropical convection and cloud in the Australian longitudes in the last week in May (red arrow). We should keep an eye on this as a potential window for moisture to penetrate south during that period.
The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions. The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases (see December MJO explainer). A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here
