Climate in-brief
The MJO has come to life in the Indian Ocean in Phase 2-3. Guidance suggests it will arrive north of Australia in the first week of April, however, rainfall impact looks to be reduced to the top-end and the Gulf region at this stage.
The next 3 weeks looks much drier for many areas in NSW and Qld. 2 of 3 Multi-week models showing emphatic dry tercile forecasts in a month (April) that is one of the driest in the calendar year for most inland locations anyway.
The current updated seasonal precipitation outlook is still positive from Apr-Jun. Those global models surveyed show above average probabilities of wetter and cooler-than-normal conditions in the next 3 months.
Some tropical cyclone activity in the north-western tropics and possibly the Gulf of Carpentaria in the coming fortnight, as the MJO interacts with warm SSTs as it passes through phases 5-6.
The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much over the entire continent and similarly to australias north and west.
Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations
only small totals in s NSW and the tropics in the last 24 hrs after a memorable week for most. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across such a broad area of the continent. Emerald seems to have been in a rain shadow as is other parts of the gulf over the past week.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17