A moderately active MJO pulse is making its way eastwards along the equator towards Australia’s north, which has been difficult to track on the spider diagram “Evaluation of individual circulation and convective variables supports a robust MJO over the Maritime Continent” (NCEP 1 Dec).
The Southern Annular Mode is back above zero, and is predicted to stay in the positive (wet) phase in the coming fortnight - assisting moisture flow through NSW and S Qld areas.
Anomalous high pressure has been the feature off eastern Australia over the last month, with many eastern locations achieving decile 1-2 November rainfall (see map opposite and bottom right).
Multi-week models showing consensus for a more general wetter-than-normal period 11-31 December. Shorter-term guidance is showing little enthusiasm for general rain events at this stage - staying in touch with information when it comes to hand will be critical in the coming days
Temperatures to remain around normal or cooler for December, with recent heat wave activity abating.

Australian weekly rainfall and relative landscape water balance

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