The story of this fortnight is the SAM actually going to script and staying in positive mode, in-line with the La Niña signal. The air pressure in the tropics is only normal (1013 hPa), which has also dipped the SOI back into neutral territory. Hence very little tropical activity showing up for November at this stage. The MJO will be the one to watch. Global MJO model outputs are all over the place, trying to predict its next move. Remembering of course, we can experience heat through Phases 3-4 as it approaches Australia prior to increased moisture in phases 5-6, when the MJO passes the Maritime Continent (Indonesia).

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