Seasonal forecast: December 2020 - February 2021

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Here are four of the major seasonal rainfall models showing for December, January, February.

The general circulation models (GCMs) are not exactly showing a conventional La Niña signature through central inland areas, instead favouring coastal Queensland, Cape York and SE corner of NSW. The cooler waters to Australia’s north and ever-persistent high-pressure systems in the Tasman Sea are perceived as having a negative influence on rainfall through central NSW through to the Darling Downs/Southern Qld.

Despite forecast rain for the first week in December, some caution is needed for northern NSW and southern Qld areas looking to plant summer crops or purchase livestock. The Southern Annular Mode has not progressed into a positive phase (in keeping with La Niña), which is likely flowing through into these model outputs and requires careful monitoring during the next few weeks.

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IRI MME (US)

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BOM (AU)

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ECMWF (EU)

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CMCC (ITA)