As we move into March, a much drier month than February, most of the influence looks centred around the coast and ranges in NSW and Qld. A drier signal creeping into inland Qld and southern NSW areas. Its worth revisiting the climateapp.net.au to check on your long-term March rainfall totals to better gauge your location risk.

Model commentary: IRI model is back to its bland, doomsday best and is showing no excitement for rain in the coming 4 weeks. JMA, who has been the form horse of the summer, favours the coast and ranges, however, no dry signal with the exception of the far north. NCEP showing activity for the coast and ranges in the coming week, consistent with the 9-day ECMWF loop. The ACCESS-S dry February forecast from a fortnight ago was the kiss-of-death some areas needed, with up to 100mm falling across NSW this week. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au