Monitoring the SAM

Recent research by Hendon et al, (2014) at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research found the Southern Annular Mode to be the leading mode of circulation variability through parts of inland eastern Australia where cotton is grown; particularly in the spring planting period.
 
A positive SAM has been proven to increase moisture supply into fronts and troughs forming in eastern Australia. The chart provided by Climate Prediction Center (US) shows the most recent observations of the SAM or (AAO). 

A negative SAM traditionally leads to a dry westerly circulation pattern through eastern Australian cropping areas.
 
BOM researchers Lim and Hendon (2013) found the SAM has the strongest connection with El-Niño Southern Oscillation in October and November – whereby the SAM is influenced most by El Niño or La Niña conditions.

Growers and advisors are encouraged to monitor the phases of the SAM together with seasonal forecasting, multi-week and short term weather models during planting. A short cartoon explaining the SAM can be found HERE. 

The SAM has been more negative than positive, which stifles East Coast Low (ECL) events along the Tasman Sea. Its been slow to align with the La Nina and wet Modoki phase. Its good to see ECLs popping up off SE Qld in the forecasts, as these events can be game-changers. This is also a key driver for Namoi and Gwydir Valleys, so a shift north of the black line will direct more moisture into those regions.

Antarctic Oscillation or SAM forecast below (25 Sep)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean