Key climate indices: ENSO & Indian Ocean

Refreshed global models are showing consensus for the Niño 3.4 region to stay outside the -0.8 SST threshold in La Niña territory. Some of the international analysts are calling for a stronger, more intense event now and one global expert has put himself out there by calling for back-to-back La Niñas in 2021-22. The typically erratic Indian Ocean Dipole is making a run for wetter phase, which will certainly help, but is unlikely to over-ride the main ENSO influence prior to decaying in November.

Bureau of Meteorology modelling 14 September

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean