2021 Long-range driver update
The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop.
The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is starting to show some model consensus towards wet phase this spring. The last wet event was 2016 and geographically, tends to impact areas from Dubbo south through Vic and SA.
The ENSO Modoki is yet to be updated from early March. Modoki and this wet phase of the Indian Ocean could be the story of 2021.
The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely
Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (30 March)
This is very interesting. Along with La Nina Modoki, could well be the story of 2021. Forecasts this far out need to be taken with a pinch of salt, however, no need for alarm bells for a repeat of 2019 when we had a strong dry phase.
Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean