Today’s 10-day ECMWF model loop is favouring the eastern half of NSW and Qld as the main rainfall beneficiaries. A look at the refreshed JMA, BOM and IRI weekly predictions show a wide model spread, consistent with the last 6 weeks. The BOM is still very excited about serious wet conditions for large areas - off the back of warm oceans around Australia. Again, none of the other globals are interested in anything other than patchy rainfall events (leading to average monthly totals) in the coming weeks. Click through next Friday for a more detailed multi-week analysis.

Keep an eye on https://meteologix.com/au for more site-specific analysis.