In the coming weeks, all the action looks to be in the FN Qld tropics and the NW Australian coastline, the latter off the back of warming SSTs and a weak MJO approaching. With the SAM dipping back towards neutral, there is nothing to suggest decent rainfall totals until at least the first week in February for most areas. Temperatures should continue to remain mild consistent with a La Niña summer. Overall, the climate is giving us little direction, while we wait in some sort of holding pattern for something to change.

Model commentary: The IRI multi-week model is back to its cautious best, showing rain for some areas in the tropics and a neutral flavour throughout until 12 Feb. The JMA has done a u-turn on rain for the end of Jan, with a more general rain event predicted for eastern Australia 1st half of Feb. The 16-day NCEP model is only showing patchy rain events and storm rain for most areas. The BOM ACCESS-S model has come off its high from wet-wet-wet to favour northern areas over the coming weeks and drier conditions for NSW and inland Qld areas. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au