A very bland looking February showing in this weeks analysis. With the MJO bypassing the NE Australian region and now out in the western Pacific, there is little guidance from the climate as to the next decent 100mm rain event. With some optimism coming from the shorter-term weather models in the coming week, on the back of a spike in the SAM - the remainder of February shows many regions being at the mercy of random storm events, as we keep an eye out for the return of the MJO. Temperatures should continue to remain mild consistent with a La Niña summer.

Model commentary: The IRI multi-week model is preaching dry for the north, and back to vanilla flavour for much of the forecast area through to the end of Feb. The JMA is fence-sitting as well for the whole of Feb, with all the convection and rainfall activity way out in the western Pacific ocean. The 16-day NCEP model is most optimistic in the north and eastern ranges and certainly not showing the same exuberance as the 9-day ECMWF loop in this edition. The BOM ACCESS-S model is showing dry/neutral conditions for many areas, consistent with the fortnight-ago analysis which has so far turned out to be pretty accurate. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au