A few positive factors at play this month: broadscale low air pressure camped over Australia (see climate in brief) set to continue, waters warming up off eastern Australia, plus - moist air streaming down from NW Australia adding to the supply of already moist air. All of these results in a very unusual alignment of wetter-than-normal conditions for the next 4 weeks.

Model commentary: IRI model has a wet tone so that in itself is an achievement. It hasn’t been excited by anything much since the December rain. It is favouring more rain across NSW than Qld, whereas the BOM model is more aligned with the 9-15 day ‘weather’ models showing Qld as the main beneficiary of decent 100-200mm+ totals. JMA, who has been the form horse of the campaign, favours rain events throughout the next 4 weeks in a general sense across the eastern half of Australia. The ACCESS-S model did a very poor job over Qld this summer, so let’s hope the current “80% chance” for rain over most of that state is not a poison chalice. Keep an eye on the Meteologix 10 day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au