The outlook for much of Queensland and NSW looks drier than normal out to the first week in May. Knowing, of course, April (with August) is one of the driest months in the calendar across much of eastern Australia. A sneak peek at the ACCESS-S model shows a dry signal for winter, somewhat of a u-turn on previous forecasts. We will investigate this, and other international model guidance in more detail on our long-range outlook when seasonal models and ocean forecasts refresh shortly.

Model commentary: IRI model is staying firm on a dry 3 weeks now out to 7 May. In hindsight, this has been a form horse through 2021. The JMA is showing a broad change for NSW and Qld at the end of April, but it’s difficult to see which climate factors are driving that, with the MJO miles away. Nothing showing on the 16-day outlook anywhere except for Ayr in FN Qld. ACCESS-S is sitting on the fence for the next four weeks, although favouring doom and gloom for winter is worth keeping an eye on when we survey other models and climate drivers shortly.

Go to 10-day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as rain events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au