Apart from the NSW coast and adjacent ranges, the outlook for much of Queensland and NSW looks drier than normal out to week 3 in May. With a good correlation of the MJO in Phases 4-5 leading to rain this time of year, it will be interesting to see if the current strong pulse of moist air in Phases 8 and 1 progress towards Australia in late May.

Model commentary: IRI model sitting on the fence and not really excited by anything in the foreseeable future and is still the form equine this calendar year. The JMA got excited by a change at the start of May two weeks ago which has now disappeared and has gone an each-way bet by showing nothing wet or dry through May. The 16-day outlook showing small totals in isolated pockets but nothing much north of 10mm. ACCESS-S is generally in doomsday mode and continues to be further out, but this horse has been struggling to beat the ambulance home. It is also bearish on a favourable IOD development, at odds with other global models.

Go to 10-day Forecast XL for a full summary of all ‘weather models’ as rain events draw closer for your area: https://meteologix.com/au