Much of our moisture originates from the tropics this time of year. The chart below shows the MJO breaking out of the circle (to active phase) into Phase 6 out in the Western Pacific Ocean. Most of the action appears to now be centred around these longitudes, to the east of Australia “ Enhanced convection is favoured to increase over the western Pacific to the west of the Date Line during the next two weeks” NCEP report 25 Jan 2021. This is not ideal for those of us looking for rain, as we may have to wait for the MJO to return on later in February to see some genuine monsoon activity on a decent scale.

The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions. The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases (see December MJO explainer). A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here