The chart below shows a moderate pulse of the MJO in Phase 2/3 over the Indian Ocean (end black line). Models are anticipating the MJO to make its way east into Phases 5-6 (red and blue lines) into the region north of Australia through the first week of April. This is the one of the first few discernible MJO events we’ve seen this wet season. Nothing much in terms of rainfall showing up on the models yet, but it could develop in weeks 2-3 in April after the MJO passes.

The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions. The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases (see December MJO explainer). A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here