Climate in-brief
This weeks chart is from CLIMATEAPP. It shows MOREE, NSW YTD rainfall (RED line) ahead of median (Blue line). Click the chart to go through to www.climateapp.net.au and choose your location in ‘hows the season?’
A dry air mass associated with a passing Rossby wave in the eastern Indian Ocean has wreaked havoc with a week ago wetter than normal multi-week forecast (NCEP report 22 Sep);
The SAM index is predicted to plummet into a negative phase in the coming week, creating rainfall opportunities for Southern NSW, while other areas remain hostage to a drier airflow;
30-day SOI has exceeded La Niña thresholds (+9), although the rise in the index has been mainly associated with higher air pressure at Tahiti. The daily index shows this will continue, which is promising;
Multi-week models are favouring rain across southern areas only. All other areas look to mid-October for the drier SAM pattern to break and tropical air masses to realign with La Nina signal and wetter IOD;
A survey of the latest global GCMs shows broad consensus for wetter-than-normal and cooler conditions between October and December; and
New crop research shows sorghum variety selection based on accurate seasonal forecasts can offer benefits to growers.
Australian weekly rainfall and relative landscape water balance
A positive spike in the SAM pushed some moisture into eastern Australian over the last week.
Rainfall maps courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/
A land of extremes with some regions at the lowest 1% and others at the highest 1%. most cropping regions are looking for rain to finish winter crops - particularly wa
Australian relative landscape water balance ‘root zone’ courtesy BOM