Climate in-brief
The MJO is showing a weak pulse in Phase 1 in the African region, however, the guidance suggests it’s unlikely to influence our climate for the next fortnight.
The next 3 weeks could see some game-changing rainfall events, with all multi-week models showing broad consensus for rainfall across eastern Australia.
The long term situation looks more nuanced in 2021. ENSO is heading towards neutral, as is the IOD. However, the Modoki index maybe the climate story of 2021.
Some tropical cyclone activity in the northwestern tropics and possibly the Gulf of Carpentaria in the coming fortnight, with FN Qld gaining a reprieve from recent wetter conditions.
The chart above shows lower air pressure pretty much over the entire continent. The large area of low pressure makes the MJO virtually indiscernible.
Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations
Some excellent falls in Southern Qld catchments overnight - that badly needed rain. Click on the link for an updated map. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/?ref=ftr
Weekly rain shows some fantastic falls across the tropics, Central Qld and parts of eastern Australia. March looks like it could be wetter than February.
Australian 7-day rainfall map courtesy http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2020&month=12&day=17