Climate in-brief

May 7, 2021 Jon Welsh

The MJO is showing a strong pulse over the Indian Ocean in Phases 2-3, which historically sees all the moisture pulled westwards away from us. The MJO is set to lose all strength as it reaches Australia in Phases 4-5. However, cloud and moisture are predicted to arrive in Australia’s north in weeks 3-4 in May, creating some confusion in the weeks ahead.
The next 3-4 weeks is uncertain. Models are split on rain-bearing systems in the second half of May. Weather models are favouring an easterly airflow to bring showers and rain to some parts of Qld and NSW.
A check on international seasonal model performance shows a vast improvement in accuracy with the ACCESS-S and ECMWF coming close to predicting a wet Feb-Apr season. Other models were not too far behind.
Very little Tropical Cyclone or activity of any consequence showing for the Australian continent for the remainder of May with Sea Surface Temps cooling in the Arafura Sea and off the NW Australian coastline.

The chart above shows very little change from last fortnight with low air pressure on the east coast and higher air pressure in the Indian Ocean.

Australian daily and weekly rainfall observations

Some heavy falls along the south coast of NSW and light falls on the eastern ranges overnight. Click thru to access the map

Weekly rain shows some handy falls across NSW and SE Qld this week, under the belt of low air pressure (above).