2021 Long-range driver update
The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop and spring pasture growing conditions.
The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is again erratic and not settled for 2021 yet. The SST maps are favouring warm water in the east around Java and Indonesia, which may not necessarily be in the eastern IOD box. The last wet event was 2016 and geographically, tends to impact areas from Dubbo south through Vic and SA.
The ENSO Modoki is trending neutral/wet (black line, below). The JAMSTEC site and Modoki forecast are currently down, which is unfortunate. Modoki and a potential wet phase of the Indian Ocean could be the story of 2021.
The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely
The BOM’s ACCESS-S model shows this idicator nudging wet thresholds late winter and spring
Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (13 April)
This is very interesting. Along with La Nina Modoki, could well be the story of 2021. Watered down a bit from a month ago. Forecasts this far out need to be taken with a pinch of salt, however, no need for alarm bells for a repeat of 2019 when we had a strong dry phase.
Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean