2021 Long-range driver update
The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop and spring pasture growing conditions - although it is trending wetter as the year progresses.
The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is again erratic, after almost settling a fortnight ago. What the bar charts don’t show is the warm sea temps around Australia’s northwest coming through the models increased chance of NW cloud bands for eastern Australia.
The ENSO Modoki is trending wet (black line, below). The JAMSTEC forecast is down, although the scientist there emailed through the numbers and is not quite as optimistic as the BOMs outlook.
Modoki and warm ocean temps around Australia are flowing through model predictions as wetter than normal conditions, despite neutral IOD and ENSO.
The chart above shows neutral ENSO conditions likely, but trending towards a late La Nina again
The BOM’s ACCESS-S model shows this indicator moving more into wet phase than a fortnight ago. A good thing for eastern Australia.
Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (25 May)
This looked settled a fortnight ago, but the passing MJO played havoc with SSTs in the Indian Ocean! All over the place again, but we have warm water outside this measuring zone - which is a good thing.
Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
What affects me, when? A rolling 3 month moving window: See here, EMI = Modoki (navy), Nino3 = ENSO (green), IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole (red) and SAM = Southern Annular Mode (yellow). White - not significant!
From Lim et al (2012): https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_051.pdf