2021 Long-range driver update
The latest global model summary released by the BOM this week shows a neutral ENSO favoured during the business end of the winter crop and spring pasture growing conditions. The trend seems to favour the La Nina to continue to develop towards years end.
The Indian Ocean Dipole outlook is a step closer to becoming more settled for 2021. The SST maps are favouring warm water in the east around Java and Indonesia, lingering from the 2020 La Nina. The last wet IOD event was 2016 and geographically, tends to impact areas from Dubbo south through Vic and SA.
The ACCESS-S ENSO Modoki is trending wetter (black line, below). The JAMSTEC site and Modoki forecast are currently down, which is unfortunate. Impacts tend to broadly affect NSW and Qld areas. Modoki and a potential wet phase of the Indian Ocean could be the key influences of 2021. Things are looking bright for eastern Australia.
The chart above shows wet/neutral ENSO conditions likely this spring
The BOM’s ACCESS-S model shows this indicator nudging wet thresholds mid-winter and spring
Indian Ocean Dipole outlook (13 May)
Models are gradually becoming less scattered as the IOD begins its annual life cycle.
Forecast chart courtesy:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean